It’s down to the wire in Group C of the CAF 2026 World Cup qualifiers as no clear leader has emerged after a dramatic Match Day 9 on Friday.

Nigeria’s Super Eagles secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Lesotho in Polokwane, South Africa, while Benin Republic maintained their grip on top spot with a crucial 1-0 away win against Rwanda, thus still leading Nigeria by three points.

The margin with South Africa is however reduced to one following Bafana Bafana’s 0-0 duel with Zimbabwe.

The results mean Benin now need just a draw in their final group match against Nigeria on Tuesday to seal their first-ever World Cup qualification.

 For Nigeria, the path is narrower: they must beat Benin in Uyo and hope that Rwanda either defeat or hold South Africa to a draw away in Johannesburg to stand a chance of progressing.

Friday’s matches, all played simultaneously, were cagey affairs with all three fixtures goalless at halftime.

The Super Eagles eventually broke the deadlock in the 55th minute when captain William Troost-Ekong confidently converted a penalty.

Eight minutes later, Akor Adams doubled Nigeria’s lead with a smart finish, seemingly putting the game beyond reach.

However, defensive frailties resurfaced late in the game, allowing Hlompho Kalake to capitalize on a mix-up in the Nigerian backline and reduce the deficit for Lesotho in the 83rd minute. Despite late pressure, Nigeria held on for all three points to keep their qualification hopes alive.

In the other Group C fixture, South Africa, who had started the day on top, stumbled with a frustrating goalless draw against Zimbabwe in Durban — a result that further opened the group.

With just one round of matches left, Group C remains delicately poised: Benin lead with 17 points, South Africa follow with 15 and Nigeria trail with 14.

It is now a three-horse race with Benin, South Africa and Nigeria still mathematically in contention.

The final round promises a thrilling climax as three nations jostle for one prized World Cup ticket.

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BY KUNLE SOLAJA.

Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have received a significant lift following the Confederation of African Football’s (CAF) decision to revise the criteria for determining the four best runners-up in the African qualifiers.

But in the end, it may boil down to the use of calculators to determine number of goals and points to be deducted from the runners-up in eight of the nine World Cup qualifying groups.

Only Niger’s position in Group E will remain constant as Eritrea’s withdrawal prompts recalibration of “best runners-up” ranking system.

The change, prompted by Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E of the qualifiers, has forced CAF and FIFA to adjust the ranking formula to ensure fairness across all nine qualifying groups. Eritrea’s exit left Group E with only five teams instead of six, creating an imbalance in the points system.

In a circular dated March 14, 2025, signed by CAF Director of Tournaments and Events, Samson Adamu, CAF explained that results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams in each group will no longer count when comparing second-placed teams.

The rule, drawn from Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 preliminary competition regulations, aims to standardize the evaluation process across all groups.

“Whenever a group has fewer than five teams due to withdrawal or disqualification, results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will not be considered when determining the best runners-up,” the circular stated.

The new regulation could reshape the qualification standings. According to early projections, several teams currently in contention — such as Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon — could each lose up to six points once results against bottom-placed teams are excluded. Meanwhile, Cameroon may lose four points, but Nigeria could benefit substantially, potentially climbing higher in the overall runners-up table. But they have to win their remaining two matches to be in contention for the group leadership or the secondary qualifying series of play-off.

Why the Rule Favours Nigeria

Nigeria currently sit outside the top spot in their qualifying group but remain in contention for one of the playoff positions reserved for the best four runners-up.

The Super Eagles have drawn both their matches against Zimbabwe, who presently occupy the bottom of Group C. In essence, the last minute goal conceded in Uyo last March could be blessing in disguise.

Under the new rule, those two draws — worth two points — would be removed from Nigeria’s total if Zimbabwe remain bottom. However, while Nigeria would lose only two points, many rival second-placed teams could lose between four and six points, giving the Super Eagles a relative advantage.

In practical terms, this adjustment means that if Nigeria finish second behind South Africa or Benin, their overall points tally could still place them among the top four second-placed teams — especially if they secure maximum points from their remaining fixtures against Lesotho and Benin Republic.

Analysis: CAF’s Balancing Act and Nigeria’s Renewed Hope

CAF’s decision reflects an attempt to maintain competitive integrity after Eritrea’s withdrawal disrupted the symmetry of the qualification groups.

By nullifying results against the lowest-ranked teams, the governing body ensures all second-placed nations are compared on a level playing field — based on equal numbers of matches and similar competitive balance.

For Nigeria, this adjustment offers a mathematical lifeline. The Super Eagles’ path to automatic qualification — by topping their group — remains the primary goal. But should they fall short, this rule revision provides a crucial backup route to the playoffs.

The timing of the rule change is also significant. With only a few matches left in the campaign, Nigeria’s qualification fate could hinge not only on their performance but also on how other second-placed teams are recalculated under the new system.

It also serves as a reminder of the fine margins in World Cup qualifying — where even administrative revisions can alter a nation’s destiny.

What Lies Ahead

Nigeria face Lesotho in Polokwane and Benin in Uyo in their upcoming fixtures, knowing that six points could transform their campaign. Head coach Eric Chelle will be urging his players to treat every match as a final, given the complex permutations now in play.

With the CAF revision effectively narrowing the gap between groups, Nigeria’s fate is once again in their hands — a rare turn of fortune after a turbulent qualifying run.

In a qualification series marked by unpredictability, this rule change might just be the break the Super Eagles need to return to the global stage after missing the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

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BY KUNLE SOLAJA.

The stakes could not be higher as Nigeria’s Super Eagles face Lesotho in a crucial 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying encounter at the Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane, South Africa, this Friday evening.

It is another desperate situation for Nigeria as it was in the qualifying duels for 2002 World Cup and that of 2010.

In both instances, qualification tickets were snatched at the last moments. In the 2002 race where a George Weah-inspired Liberia became the front runner, it was a dramatic 4-0 away win against Sudan and concurrent Liberia home loss to an already eliminated Ghana that turned the tide in Nigeria’s favour.

History might also repeat itself on this day. Similarly, in the final race to the 2010World Cup, Tunisia were the leaders as the Nigerian team displayed epileptic form just in this current qualifier.

A dramatic turn-around came when Nigeria beat Kenya away and Mozambique also beat Tunisia in the dying-minutes of an encounter that was going the North Africans’ way.

Now with only two matches left in the qualifying campaign, Nigeria’s hopes of reaching the 2026 finals hang delicately in the balance.

The recent decision by FIFA to dock South Africa three points for fielding an ineligible player against Lesotho has reopened the group, giving Nigeria a narrow but vital lifeline.

The Group C table remains tight, with Nigeria needing nothing short of victory to keep their World Cup dreams alive before the final group clash against Benin Republic.

Results elsewhere in Group C matter. Nigeria will hope both Benin Republic and South Africa falter in their respective away games to Rwanda and Zimbabwe.

Rwanda, with 11 points like Nigeria remain a potential qualifier. Zimbabwe, playing their home game away in South Africa can only play a ‘spoiler’s role. The three matches are expected to be played concurrently.

Only the team that finishes top will qualify automatically, while the runners-up must rely on a playoff route.

Lesotho, meanwhile, are fifth in the group but have shown flashes of resilience throughout the campaign.

The Crocodiles, as they are nicknamed, have shared their goals among several players — Motlomelo Mkwanazi, Lehlohonolo Fothoane, Rethabile Rasethuntsa and Jane Thabantso — and are expected to adopt a cautious, counter-attacking style against the Nigerians.

Though officially designated as a “home” fixture for Lesotho, the match will again be played in South Africa, where they host their international games due to stadium limitations in Maseru.

For Nigeria, this is a game they simply cannot afford to drop. The Super Eagles have endured an inconsistent campaign, managing only two wins from eight matches so far.

 Injuries have also complicated the team’s preparations. Defender Ola Aina remains sidelined with a hamstring problem, while there are fitness concerns around Bright Osayi-Samuel and striker Cyriel Dessers.

The possible return of forward Victor Osimhen could prove decisive, as head coach Eric Chelle is expected to deploy an attacking line-up that reflects the urgency of the occasion. Nigeria are likely to set up in a 4-3-3 formation, pressing high and pushing for early goals.

Despite their struggles, Nigeria’s record against Lesotho offers encouragement. The Super Eagles have never lost to the Crocodiles, though the reverse fixture in Uyo ended in a shock 1–1 draw — a result that Nigeria will be desperate to avoid repeating.

Analysts and betting markets strongly favour Nigeria to win, with most predictions pointing to a 2–0 or 3–1 outcome in their favour.

Goals will be crucial as they may be the ultimate decider as the Group C could get to the last match day next week will all top four – Benin, South Africa, Nigeria and Rwanda all going to the final day on 14 points in the event of possible Nigeria, Rwanda and Zimbabwe victories this Friday.

Yet, the Crocodiles have proven capable of frustrating superior opposition, and their disciplined defending may once again test the Nigerians’ patience.

For Lesotho, it is another chance to play spoilers in one of African football’s most competitive qualification groups. For Nigeria, it is a moment of reckoning — a battle for pride, redemption, and survival on the road to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

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