World Cup
CAF Rule Change May Boost Nigeria’s World Cup Qualification Hopes
BY KUNLE SOLAJA.
Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have received a significant lift following the Confederation of African Football’s (CAF) decision to revise the criteria for determining the four best runners-up in the African qualifiers.
But in the end, it may boil down to the use of calculators to determine number of goals and points to be deducted from the runners-up in eight of the nine World Cup qualifying groups.
Only Niger’s position in Group E will remain constant as Eritrea’s withdrawal prompts recalibration of “best runners-up” ranking system.
The change, prompted by Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E of the qualifiers, has forced CAF and FIFA to adjust the ranking formula to ensure fairness across all nine qualifying groups. Eritrea’s exit left Group E with only five teams instead of six, creating an imbalance in the points system.
In a circular dated March 14, 2025, signed by CAF Director of Tournaments and Events, Samson Adamu, CAF explained that results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams in each group will no longer count when comparing second-placed teams.
The rule, drawn from Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 preliminary competition regulations, aims to standardize the evaluation process across all groups.
“Whenever a group has fewer than five teams due to withdrawal or disqualification, results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will not be considered when determining the best runners-up,” the circular stated.
The new regulation could reshape the qualification standings. According to early projections, several teams currently in contention — such as Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon — could each lose up to six points once results against bottom-placed teams are excluded. Meanwhile, Cameroon may lose four points, but Nigeria could benefit substantially, potentially climbing higher in the overall runners-up table. But they have to win their remaining two matches to be in contention for the group leadership or the secondary qualifying series of play-off.
Why the Rule Favours Nigeria
Nigeria currently sit outside the top spot in their qualifying group but remain in contention for one of the playoff positions reserved for the best four runners-up.
The Super Eagles have drawn both their matches against Zimbabwe, who presently occupy the bottom of Group C. In essence, the last minute goal conceded in Uyo last March could be blessing in disguise.
Under the new rule, those two draws — worth two points — would be removed from Nigeria’s total if Zimbabwe remain bottom. However, while Nigeria would lose only two points, many rival second-placed teams could lose between four and six points, giving the Super Eagles a relative advantage.
In practical terms, this adjustment means that if Nigeria finish second behind South Africa or Benin, their overall points tally could still place them among the top four second-placed teams — especially if they secure maximum points from their remaining fixtures against Lesotho and Benin Republic.
Analysis: CAF’s Balancing Act and Nigeria’s Renewed Hope
CAF’s decision reflects an attempt to maintain competitive integrity after Eritrea’s withdrawal disrupted the symmetry of the qualification groups.
By nullifying results against the lowest-ranked teams, the governing body ensures all second-placed nations are compared on a level playing field — based on equal numbers of matches and similar competitive balance.
For Nigeria, this adjustment offers a mathematical lifeline. The Super Eagles’ path to automatic qualification — by topping their group — remains the primary goal. But should they fall short, this rule revision provides a crucial backup route to the playoffs.
The timing of the rule change is also significant. With only a few matches left in the campaign, Nigeria’s qualification fate could hinge not only on their performance but also on how other second-placed teams are recalculated under the new system.
It also serves as a reminder of the fine margins in World Cup qualifying — where even administrative revisions can alter a nation’s destiny.
What Lies Ahead
Nigeria face Lesotho in Polokwane and Benin in Uyo in their upcoming fixtures, knowing that six points could transform their campaign. Head coach Eric Chelle will be urging his players to treat every match as a final, given the complex permutations now in play.
With the CAF revision effectively narrowing the gap between groups, Nigeria’s fate is once again in their hands — a rare turn of fortune after a turbulent qualifying run.
In a qualification series marked by unpredictability, this rule change might just be the break the Super Eagles need to return to the global stage after missing the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
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Madonna and Shakira will line up with K-pop supergroup BTS to headline the first-ever World Cup final halftime show at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, FIFA said on Thursday.
Coldplay singer Chris Martin will curate the extravaganza scheduled for July 19, the tournament’s organiser added.
“The FIFA World Cup 2026 Final halftime show will be a truly special moment, bringing together music, football and a shared commitment to improving the lives of children around the world,” FIFA president Gianni Infantino said on social media.
“Together, we will support the FIFA Global Citizen Education Fund and help create greater access to quality education and football for children worldwide.”
The 48-team World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will run from June 11 to July 19. The tournament will feature 104 matches, up from the previous 64, including an additional knockout round.
Last year’s Club World Cup in North America, which served as a test run for the World Cup, also featured a halftime show including performances from American rapper Doja Cat, Colombian singer J Balvin and Nigerian singer Tems.
-Reuters
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Football’s global players’ union renewed concerns on Thursday about heat at the 2026 World Cup after scientists warned that the likelihood of dangerous temperatures for players and fans has sharply increased.
An analysis by climate research group World Weather Attribution found that roughly a quarter of the 104 matches at the expanded tournament across the United States, Mexico and Canada are likely to be played in conditions exceeding safety limits recommended by FIFPRO, almost twice the risk seen at the 1994 World Cup in the U.S.
Around five matches could take place in conditions considered unsafe, where postponement would be advised, the researchers said.
Scientists assessed the risk using kickoff times and the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, which measures how effectively the body can cool itself.
“The calculations to estimate the likelihood of 2026 FIFA World Cup games being played in high WBGT conditions are in line with FIFPRO’s calculations published in 2023,” said FIFPRO’s medical director, Vincent Gouttebarge.
“These estimations justify the need for – and implementation of – a series of mitigation strategies with a view to better protecting players’ health and performance when they are exposed to hot conditions.”
FIFPRO recommends cooling measures when WBGT rises above 26 degrees Celsius and says matches should be postponed if it exceeds 28C, which is equivalent to roughly 38C in dry heat or 30C in high humidity.
FIFA told Reuters that it has carried out heat-risk planning, with measures including three-minute hydration breaks in each half of games, cooling infrastructure for fans and players, adapted work-rest cycles, and enhanced medical readiness that scale according to real-time conditions.
“FIFA is committed to protecting the health and safety of players, referees, fans, volunteers and staff,” the global governing body said in a statement.
‘MORE CONSERVATIVE FOOTBALL’
Chris Mullington, consultant anaesthetist at Imperial College London NHS Trust and clinical senior lecturer at Imperial College London, said extreme heat is more likely to influence how games are played than trigger widespread medical emergencies among players.
“It will be more of a performance issue than a health issue,” he said. “These players are elite athletes and acclimatised. You’ll see players self-pacing. That behavioural thermoregulation is very difficult to override.
“So you may end up with more conservative football.”
Cooling systems are expected to reduce some of the risk at three of the 16 host venues, according to the analysis.
However, more than a third of games with at least a 10% chance of exceeding 26 C WBGT are scheduled at stadiums without air conditioning, including Miami, Kansas City, New York and Philadelphia.
That includes the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which now faces a one-in-eight chance of exceeding the 26 C threshold and a roughly 3% risk of reaching the more dangerous level — about double the risk it would have carried in 1994, the analysis said.
Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said the findings highlighted the need for FIFA to reconsider when future World Cups are scheduled, particularly in regions vulnerable to extreme summer heat.
“From a health point of view, it would be advisable to have these (World Cups) either earlier or later in the year, so you can have a football party rather than something that is a massive health risk for the whole city,” said Otto.
FIFPRO also warned that while air-conditioned stadiums in cities such as Dallas and Houston may help protect players, fans attending matches and outdoor fan festivals could remain exposed to prolonged periods of dangerous heat.
-Reuters
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Iran hosted a World Cup departure rally attended by thousands of fans in Tehran’s Enqelab Square on Wednesday night, even though concerns remain about the team getting into the United States and competing at the tournament.
The players, who will continue their preparations at a training camp in Turkey next week, were cheered by the crowd as they made patriotic statements from a stage, and the kit they will wear at the June 11 to July 19 tournament was unveiled.
“This is the best send-off in the last four World Cup campaigns,” Iranian FA (FFIRI) President Mehdi Taj told state TV.
“The players are with the people, and the crowd stands with the country’s dignity, honour, and strength. Whatever the result, may Iran’s flag be raised there and defended.”
Iran’s national soccer team head coach Amir Ghalenoei and Iran Football Federation President Mehdi Taj attend the team’s farewell ceremony ahead of their departure to the 2026 World Cup in Tehran, Iran, May 13, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iran’s participation in the World Cup has been in question since the U.S. and Israel started the regional war by launching air strikes on the Islamic Republic in late February.
Taj was refused entry to co-host nation Canada for the FIFA Congress two weeks ago because of his connection to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), triggering fears there may be issues for some of the Iranian delegation getting into the U.S.
As in Canada, the IRGC is classified as a “terrorist entity” in the U.S., and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said no one with ties to the organisation would be admitted to the country.
Iran has placed responsibility for getting the players and team officials into the U.S., where Team Melli are scheduled to play all three World Cup group matches, firmly in the hands of tournament organisers FIFA.
“Nothing has arrived yet regarding the visas. We hope it will definitely be handled within this timeframe,” Hedayat Mombeini, the FFIRI secretary-general, told state TV at the rally on Wednesday.
“FIFA has made promises, and hopefully those promises will lead to results, and the players will receive their visas on time.”
Reports that some Iraqi players had been refused U.S. visas, which were quickly refuted by the White House and Iraq Football Association on Wednesday, further fuelled Iranian concerns.
“I just heard that news as well,” Mombeini added.
“I hope FIFA steps in … we have always believed sport should be separate from politics. So in my view, FIFA has a duty to step in and make sure entry for all members of all World Cup teams is facilitated.”
Iran will play Gambia in a World Cup warm-up in Antalya on May 29, and Mombeini said the FFIRI was in the process of arranging another friendly for the training camp in Turkey.
-Reuters
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