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Saudi Arabia win is statistically biggest World Cup shock, say, data company, Gracenote

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Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 victory over Argentina on Tuesday is rated the biggest shock in World Cup history by data company Nielsen Gracenote, moving ahead of the previous biggest upset, the United States’ win over England in 1950.

Using its proprietary ranking system and a complex formula that factors in team strength, location and history, Gracenote said that 51st-ranked Saudi’s chance of beating an Argentine side unbeaten in 36 internationals was 8.7%.

Some of the more famous upsets, such as North Korea beating Italy in 1966 and Cameroon beating then-holders Argentina in the opening match of 1990 did not make Gracenote’s top 10 – with both outsiders being better sides than widely considered.

Both of those went on to reach the quarter-finals as an indicator that they were better teams than thought at the time.

Gracenote’s top 10 World Cup upsets:

1. Saudi Arabia 2 Argentina 1 (8.7% chance) 2022

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Ranked 51st in the world, Saudi Arabia were facing a team hoping to match the international record for unbeaten games – 37. Things appeared to be going to form when Lionel Messi put Argentina ahead with a 10th-minute penalty but goals by Saleh Al-Shehri and Salem Al-Dawsari early in the second half secured the stunning upset.

2. United States 1-0 England (9.5% chance) 1950.

Appearing for the first time, England were favourites to win the 1950 World Cup in Brazil while the Americans were a semi-professional squad. England, featuring future World Cup winning manager Alf Ramsey in defence, dominated but lost to Joey Gaetjens’ first-half header. It would be another 44 years before the U.S. would win another match at the World Cup.

3. Switzerland 1-0 Spain (10.3%) 2010.

Spain arrived in South Africa as European champions and World Cup favourites and though they had 22 shots to Switzerland’s six, they lost to a second half Gelson Fernandes goal. Spain recovered from the setback well enough to go on and win the final three weeks later.

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4. Algeria 2-1 West Germany (13.2%) 1982.

Algeria’s first ever World Cup match delivered their finest hour as Lakhdar Belloumi made the first goal and scored the winner against European powerhouse West Germany.

The result led to one of the more unsavoury episodes in World Cup history when Austria and West Germany conspired to play out a 1-0 win for the Germans that sent them both through to the second stage on goal difference at the expense of the north Africans. Germany went on to lose to Italy in the final.

After that tournament, FIFA changed the rules to make the final group games simultaneous kickoffs.

5. Ghana 2-0 Czech Republic (13.9%) 2006.

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A Czech team who had reached the 2004 European Championship final were expected to go deep in the World Cup and opened with a 3-0 demolition of the United States, while Ghana, making their World Cup debut, had already lost to Italy.

However, Asamoah Gyan put Ghana ahead after 70 seconds and Sulley Muntari got a late second to settle a fantastic match. Ghana went on to lose to Brazil in the second round, while the Czechs failed to qualify.

6. Uruguay 2-1 Brazil (14.2%) 1950.

The only World Cup not to feature a final, effectively got one via this last group match, where Brazil needed only a draw on home soil to take the title.

In front of almost 200,000 fans, Brazil were leading midway through the second half but Uruguay scored twice in 13 minutes through Pepe Schiaffino and Alcides Ghiggia to secure the trophy for the second time in a game that remains famous in both nations’ history.

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7. South Korea 2-0 Germany (14.4%) 2018.

Defending champions Germany had already lost to Mexico but it was still a massive shock to see them beaten by South Korea, who needed a two-goal victory to have any chance of progressing.

They got both goals in stoppage time through Kim Young-gwon and Son Heung-min but the other group result elsewhere eliminated them and Germany, who failed to progress from the group phase for the first time since 1938.

8. Wales 2-1 Hungary (16.2%) 1958.

On the downslope from their “Magnificent Magyars” peak of 1954, Hungary were still regarded as one of the best teams in the world but after a group draw with Wales they had to negotiate this playoff against the same side.

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Fully expecting to put things right in the second meeting, Hungary were shocked again as Ivor Allchurch and Terry Medwin secured the comeback win in the second half. Wales did not appear in the World Cup again until Monday’s 1-1 draw with the United States.

9. Northern Ireland 1-0 Spain (16.5%) 1982.

Host nation Spain needed a draw to finish top of the group and progress to the easier second phase group but, despite dominating the match, Gerry Armstrong scored the most famous goal in his tiny country’s history.

10. Senegal 1-0 France (17.3%) 2002

France were world and European champions while Senegal were making their tournament debut in a match given extra spice by the fact that 21 of Senegal’s 23-man squad played for French clubs.

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In another memorable opening game, Papa Bouba Diop got the only goal as Senegal started a march all the way to the quarter-finals while France finished bottom of their group.

-Reuters

Kunle Solaja is the author of landmark books on sports and journalism as well as being a multiple award-winning journalist and editor of long standing. He is easily Nigeria’s foremost soccer diarist and Africa's most capped FIFA World Cup journalist, having attended all FIFA World Cup finals from Italia ’90 to Qatar 2022. He was honoured at the Qatar 2022 World Cup by FIFA and AIPS.

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Former Brazil coach Tite taking break to take care of mental, physical health

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Brasileiro Championship - Gremio v Flamengo - Arena do Gremio, Porto Alegre, Brazil - September 22, 2024 Flamengo coach Tite REUTERS/Diego Vara/File Photo

Former Brazil coach Tite said he is taking an indefinite career break in order to take care of his mental and physical health.

The 63-year-old, who led Brazil to the 2019 Copa America title, was hospitalised due to a heart issue last August. He was sacked by Flamengo the following month and had most recently been linked with the Corinthians job.

“I realised that there are times when you have to understand that, as a human being, I can be vulnerable and admitting that will certainly make me stronger,” Tite said in a statement posted on his son Matheus Bachi’s Instagram on Tuesday.

“I’m passionate about what I do and I’ll continue to be so, but after talking to my family and observing the signals my body was giving off, I decided that the best thing to do now is to take a break from my career to look after myself for as long as it takes.

“As has become public, there was a conversation in progress with Corinthians, but it will have to be paralysed by a difficult but necessary decision.”

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Tite, who stepped down as Brazil coach after their quarter-final exit from the 2022 World Cup, has previously coached a string of Brazilian sides including Gremio, Atletico Mineiro and Palmeiras.

-Reuters

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Brazil sack coach Dorival after humiliating loss to Argentina

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World Cup - South American Qualifiers - Argentina v Brazil - Estadio Mas Monumental, Buenos Aires, Argentina - March 25, 2025 Brazil coach Dorival Junior is seen before the match REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo

Brazil have sacked head coach Dorival Jr, the country’s football confederation (CBF) said on Friday after the five-time world champions were thrashed 4-1 away to fierce rivals Argentina in a humiliating qualifying loss in Buenos Aires.

The 62-year-old was appointed in January 2024 after the team spent a year under two caretaker coaches as the Brazilian FA were unable to lure Italian Carlo Ancelotti from Real Madrid.

“The Brazilian Football Confederation informs that coach Dorival Jr is no longer in charge of the Brazilian national team,” the confederation said in a statement.

“The management thanks (Dorival) and wishes him success in continuing his career … the CBF will work to find his replacement,” it added.

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Dorival was handed the job after his success with Flamengo in 2022 where he won the Copa Libertadores and Brazilian Cup, a trophy he lifted again the next year with Sao Paulo.

However, he never seemed to get to grips with the national team job and failed to earn the trust of Brazil’s demanding fans after winning only seven of his 16 games in charge.

Sources told Reuters the CBF was not confident in Dorival’s work, considering there had been little to no progress since a lacklustre Copa America campaign when Brazil were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Uruguay last year.

Still, the CBF was willing to wait and see until the 2026 World Cup qualifiers against Ecuador and Paraguay in June to reassess the situation following the end of the European season and the Club World Cup in the U.S. in June and July.

But after Brazil slumped to their heaviest-ever loss in a qualifier when they were thrashed by Argentina this week, CBF president Ednaldo Rodrigues decided to pull the trigger.

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Sources told Reuters Ancelotti was still the ideal candidate but he is under contract with Real until July 2026 and there is no indication he would leave the European and Spanish champions.

Brazilian media have reported that Al Hilal’s Portuguese coach Jorge Jesus is the favourite to replace Dorival.

Brazil have been in unfamiliar territory for over two years since crashing out of the 2022 World Cup against Croatia on penalties in the quarter-finals, a heartbreaking elimination that led to the exit of long-time manager Tite.

Their humbling defeat in Buenos Aires was the latest of a series of negative records Brazil have set under caretakers Ramon Menezes and Fernando Diniz and with Dorival in charge. They had never conceded four goals in a World Cup qualifier.

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Brazil are in the midst of their worst-ever World Cup qualifying campaign. They are fourth in the South American standings with 21 points, a point above sixth-placed Colombia who currently occupy the final direct qualifying berth.

Never have Brazil lost so many games, conceded so many goals or set so many negative records in the qualifying competition. They have lost five of their 14 games and conceded 16 goals.

Brazil’s 1-0 defeat by Argentina in the Maracana late in 2023 was their first-ever qualifying loss on home soil.

They also lost to Colombia for the first time, saw the end of their unbeaten run against Uruguay stretching back over two decades and were defeated by Morocco and Senegal, having never previously lost to an African nation.

-Reuters

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England’s German manager Tuchel will not sing the English anthem in his first game

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England manager Thomas Tuchel said he would have to “earn the right” to sing the national anthem, God Save the King, after announcing his 26-man squad on Friday ahead of the team’s World Cup qualifiers.

Tuchel, who was appointed as Gareth Southgate’s successor in October and named his first squad to face Albania and Latvia this month, said he would not sing the anthem in his first games in charge.

“It means a lot to me, I can assure you, but I can feel that because it is so meaningful and it is so emotional and it is so powerful, the national anthem, that I have to earn my right to sing it,” the 51-year-old German told a news conference.

Former caretaker manager Lee Carsley was criticised last year for not singing the anthem during his tenure.

However, Tuchel added that while he is proud to be in charge of the team and knows the words to the anthem, he plans to earn the right with results.

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“Maybe I have to dive more into the culture and earn my right from you, from the players, from the supporters, so everyone feels like ‘he should sing it now, he’s one of our own, he’s the English manager, he should sing it’,” he said.

-Reuters

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