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Premier League

Computers say Arsenal won’t win title, on the pitch they look like champions in waiting

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Premier League - Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal - The American Express Community Stadium, Brighton, Britain - April 6, 2024 Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta and his players applaud their fans after the match REUTERS/Dylan Martinez

The super computers and number crunchers still don’t fancy Arsenal’s chances of winning a compelling three-way Premier League title race despite, on current form, the London club being the best team in England.

Twelve months ago Arsenal were gobbled up by a relentless Manchester City in a two-horse race, but this time Mikel Arteta’s side are showing absolutely no sign of flinching and lead Liverpool on goal difference and City by one point.

They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games with the only dropped points coming in a masterful 0-0 draw at champions Manchester City that was concrete proof of how much they improved from last year’s model.

Arsenal have scored 20 times in their last five away league games in which they conceded not a single goal.

They wear the confident look of champions elect but there are caveats, notably a seven-game run in that looks tougher than Liverpool’s and Manchester City’s with matches against Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United.

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Premier League data analysts Opta ran the likely scenarios through their computer after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday and come up with a conclusion that will not be comforting for Arsenal fans.

In fact the weekend’s matches, which began with City’s 4-2 win at Crystal Palace and included Arsenal’s superlative 3-0 win away at Brighton and Hove Albion appear to have skewed the title race firmly in favour of Pep Guardiola’s City.

Before the weekend City were 33.6% likely to win a fourth successive title, according to Opta. That has now increased to 40.6%. Arsenal’s title-winning chance is 30.3% with Liverpool slipping from favourites to third at 29.1% — a 15.9% drop from before the last round of fixtures.

A look at the remaining fixtures explains why City are marginally the more likely to prevail in the tightest three-way title duel since City edged out a stumbling Liverpool and Chelsea by two and four points respectively in 2013-14.

Six of City’s last seven games are against Luton Town (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h), Fulham (a) and West Ham United (h) with their biggest test being a trip to Tottenham Hotspur.

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Arsenal host fifth-placed Aston Villa on Saturday before Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a) and Everton (h).

Liverpool face Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wolves (h).

While the algorithms still favour City, Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title in 20 years are boosted by a far superior goal difference compared to their two rivals.

In a race that looks like going to the wire, that could be crucial, although Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp knows there will be many more twists and turns to come.

“I knew it would be super tricky until the end. Until yesterday we were top, now it’s Arsenal and — I don’t know when — then it may be somebody else,” he said.

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-Reuters

Kunle Solaja is the author of landmark books on sports and journalism as well as being a multiple award-winning journalist and editor of long standing. He is easily Nigeria’s foremost soccer diarist and Africa's most capped FIFA World Cup journalist, having attended all FIFA World Cup finals from Italia ’90 to Qatar 2022. He was honoured at the Qatar 2022 World Cup by FIFA and AIPS.

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Premier League

Liverpool stay top of Premier League as Arsenal, Man City win

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Liverpool's Cody Gakpo, centre left, Ryan Gravenberch, centre, and Diogo Jota celebrate after the English Premier League soccer match between Crystal Palace and Liverpool at Selhurst Park in London, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. AP

Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 1-0 to remain top of the Premier League as Arsenal and Manchester City came from behind to win on Saturday.

City were 3-2 victors over Fulham to stay one point behind Liverpool, alongside Arsenal who saw off Southampton 3-1.

Arne Slot has now won nine of his first 10 games since succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool manager, but was frustrated that the visitors invited a late onslaught from the winless Eagles.

Jota prodded the Reds into the lead from Cody Gakpo’s cross on nine minutes.

The Portuguese international was then guilty of missing two big chances to extend Liverpool’s advantage.

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Palace failed to make them pay, but victory came at a cost for Slot as goalkeeper Alisson Becker limped off with a hamstring injury.

“If you score the second you break them mentally,” said Slot. “All the fans kept believing in a result because it was only 1-0, even though in my opinion we were the dominant team.”

Fresh from a dominant win over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, Arsenal were expected to sweep aside winless Southampton.

But the Saints shocked the Emirates 10 minutes into the second half when Cameron Archer fired in his first Premier League goal since a summer move from Aston Villa.

The lead only lasted three minutes before Kai Havertz scored for the seventh consecutive home game.

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Gabriel Martinelli was introduced after an hour and took just eight minutes to make his mark with a finish on the volley from Bukayo Saka’s cross.

Having set up Arsenal’s first two goals, Saka pounced on a loose ball to score the third himself.

Fulham’s outrageous opener
 

Rodri’s season-long absence due to a serious knee injury is expected to be a major blow to City’s chances of retaining the title for a fifth consecutive season.

But it was the Spaniard’s deputy Mateo Kovacic who scored twice to turn the game around for the champions at the Etihad.

The visitors had not lost since the opening night of the season at Manchester United and led thanks to Andreas Pereira’s finish from an outrageous backheel assist by Raul Jimenez.

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Kovacic’s deflected effort quickly brought City level before a cleaner strike less than two minutes into the second half made it 2-1.

Jeremy Doku then smashed into the top corner from outside the box to give City a two-goal cushion, which they needed.

Rodrigo Muniz gave Fulham hope on 88 minutes, but City held out for a 17th consecutive win against the Cottagers.

West Ham eased the pressure on new boss Julen Lopetegui by ending a run of three home defeats to start the new season.

Michail Antonio, Mohammed Kudus, Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta struck for the Hammers in a 4-1 win over Ipswich, who are still waiting for their first Premier League win 22 years.

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There were six goals before half-time as Brentford beat Wolves 5-3 to leave the visitors still rooted to the foot of the table.

Leicester secured their first league win of the season as Facundo Buonanotte’s strike beat Bournemouth 1-0.

Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag faces a huge match if he is to remain in charge when the Red Devils visit Aston Villa in the pick of Sunday’s action.

-AFP

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Premier League

Premier League rejects City request to delay next season’s games after Club World Cup

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 Premier League - Newcastle United v Manchester City - St James' Park, Newcastle, Britain - September 28, 2024 Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola reacts REUTERS/Scott Heppell/File photo

The Premier League has rejected Manchester City’s request to postpone the first two games of the 2025-26 season to help the players recover after their FIFA Club World Cup campaign in the U.S., the club’s manager Pep Guardiola said on Friday.

City and Chelsea are the two English clubs who have qualified for the expanded month-long Club World Cup set to start on June 15. The Premier League’s season will begin in August.

An increasingly packed soccer calendar has been a concern among a growing number of players and managers. A report by global players’ union FIFPRO said some players get only 12% of the year to rest.

The Premier League did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular business hours.

City midfielder Rodri said in September that players could be close to strike action over the time they are required to play. A knee ligament injury has since put him out for the season.

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“I don’t know if we will play more games than the treble year (2022-23)… maybe we’ll play less games,” Guardiola told reporters.

“The Premier League has not allowed us to postpone the first two games for our recovery. Thank you so much. They don’t postpone these games so that will be the moment of, oh, what do we have to do?”

He said the Club World Cup will make it even more difficult for clubs to manage player workload.

-Reuters

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Ten Hag’s Man United future not my call, Ratcliffe says

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FA Cup - Final - Manchester City v Manchester United - Wembley Stadium, London, Britain - May 25, 2024 Manchester United co owner Jim Ratcliffe is pictured in the stands before the match Action Images via Reuters/Andrew Couldridge/File Photo

Manchester United co-owner Jim Ratcliffe said a decision about under-fire manager Erik ten Hag is not his call, and was reticent about whether he still has faith in the team’s boss amid their worst start to the Premier League season since 1986-87.

“I don’t want to answer that question,” Ratcliffe told the BBC. “I like Erik. I think he’s a very good coach but at the end of the day it’s not my call, it’s the management team that’s running Manchester United that have to decide how we best run the team in many different respects.

“That team that’s running Manchester United has only been together since June or July. They weren’t there in January, February, March or April — Omar (Berrada, CEO), (Sporting Director) Dan Ashworth — they only arrived in July.

“They’ve only been there . . . you can count it in weeks almost — they’ve not been there a long time so they need to take stock and make some sensible decisions.”

Ten Hag’s job was the subject of speculation for much of last season en route to the team’s lowest Premier League finish of eighth. After an FA Cup final victory over Manchester City and an end-of-season review, however, Ten Hag signed a new contract to extend his stay at Old Trafford until 2026.

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“Our objective is very clear, we want to take Manchester United back to where it should be, and it’s not there yet, obviously, that’s very clear,” Ratcliffe said.

Ten Hag continues to plead for patience from fans with the team languishing 13th in the Premier League table, having lost three of their six opening games. They were headed towards defeat by Porto in the Europa League on Thursday before Harry Maguire scored a last-gasp goal to salvage a 3-3 draw.

-Reuters

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