Premier League
Computers say Arsenal won’t win title, on the pitch they look like champions in waiting
The super computers and number crunchers still don’t fancy Arsenal’s chances of winning a compelling three-way Premier League title race despite, on current form, the London club being the best team in England.
Twelve months ago Arsenal were gobbled up by a relentless Manchester City in a two-horse race, but this time Mikel Arteta’s side are showing absolutely no sign of flinching and lead Liverpool on goal difference and City by one point.
They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games with the only dropped points coming in a masterful 0-0 draw at champions Manchester City that was concrete proof of how much they improved from last year’s model.
Arsenal have scored 20 times in their last five away league games in which they conceded not a single goal.
They wear the confident look of champions elect but there are caveats, notably a seven-game run in that looks tougher than Liverpool’s and Manchester City’s with matches against Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Premier League data analysts Opta ran the likely scenarios through their computer after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday and come up with a conclusion that will not be comforting for Arsenal fans.
In fact the weekend’s matches, which began with City’s 4-2 win at Crystal Palace and included Arsenal’s superlative 3-0 win away at Brighton and Hove Albion appear to have skewed the title race firmly in favour of Pep Guardiola’s City.
Before the weekend City were 33.6% likely to win a fourth successive title, according to Opta. That has now increased to 40.6%. Arsenal’s title-winning chance is 30.3% with Liverpool slipping from favourites to third at 29.1% — a 15.9% drop from before the last round of fixtures.
A look at the remaining fixtures explains why City are marginally the more likely to prevail in the tightest three-way title duel since City edged out a stumbling Liverpool and Chelsea by two and four points respectively in 2013-14.
Six of City’s last seven games are against Luton Town (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h), Fulham (a) and West Ham United (h) with their biggest test being a trip to Tottenham Hotspur.
Arsenal host fifth-placed Aston Villa on Saturday before Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a) and Everton (h).
Liverpool face Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wolves (h).
While the algorithms still favour City, Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title in 20 years are boosted by a far superior goal difference compared to their two rivals.
In a race that looks like going to the wire, that could be crucial, although Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp knows there will be many more twists and turns to come.
“I knew it would be super tricky until the end. Until yesterday we were top, now it’s Arsenal and — I don’t know when — then it may be somebody else,” he said.
-Reuters
Premier League
Arsenal survive huge scare to edge towards title

Arsenal edged a step closer to the Premier League title with Leandro Trossard’s late goal and a slice of fortune in stoppage time, securing a precious 1-0 victory at relegation-threatened West Ham United to put them five points clear on Sunday.
Mikel Arteta’s side looked like dropping points to keep the door ajar for chasing Manchester City, but Trossard’s 83rd-minute goal means that victories over Burnley and Crystal Palace will guarantee their first English crown since 2004.
An off-key Arsenal were living on their nerves and survived a huge scare in stoppage time as West Ham’s Callum Wilson fired home in a goalmouth scramble, but his effort was ruled out for a foul on Arsenal keeper David Raya after a lengthy VAR check.
It completed a stunning week for Arsenal, who reached the Champions League final for the first time since 2006 by beating Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
Victory left them on 79 points from 36 games with City, who have a game in hand against Crystal Palace on Wednesday, on 74 from 35. West Ham stay third from bottom on 36 points from 36 games and will be desperately hoping that Leeds United can take points off 17th-placed Tottenham Hotspur on Monday.
“It has been a hell of a week, a rollercoaster of a week, with everything we have had to play for and all of the emotions in those games,” Arteta said.
West Ham’s bitter defeat means Leeds and Nottingham Forest are safe from relegation. Forest drew 1-1 at home against Newcastle United with a late equaliser by Elliot Anderson, taking them to 43 points.
Aston Villa suffered a European hangover in a 2-2 draw with already-relegated Burnley that stalled their hopes of sealing a place in the Champions League.
Three days after reaching the Europa League final, Villa found themselves trailing to an early goal by Jaidon Anthony, but Ross Barkley levelled before halftime, and Ollie Watkins fired Villa ahead after the break.
Burnley’s Zian Flemming equalised, though, to leave Villa in fifth place with 59 points, behind Liverpool on goal difference. Villa play Liverpool next week.
RELIEF FOR ARSENAL
Rarely has a capital derby had more riding on it than the clash between West Ham and Arsenal at the London Stadium.
Both sides were desperate for a victory for contrasting reasons, and Arsenal were breathing a huge sigh of relief after a dramatic conclusion to the contest.
With Manchester City beating Brentford 3-0 on Saturday to close the gap to two points, the pressure was on Arsenal in what always looked like a treacherous fixture.
Apart from a dominant opening 25 minutes, they struggled against a battling West Ham side and needed two great saves from Raya to keep the hosts at bay.
When Trossard fired home after being picked out by Martin Odegaard in the 83rd minute, it sparked delirium behind the goal where the Arsenal fans were massed.
But deep in stoppage time, Wilson drove a shot through a forest of legs to seemingly earn West Ham a priceless point in their battle to extend their 14-season stay in the top flight.
Silence descended around the stadium as VAR checked for a foul on Raya by West Ham’s Pablo, and there was a stomach-churning wait as referee Chris Kavanagh watched replay after replay on the monitor before deciding to disallow the goal.
Sky Sports pundit Gary Neville described it as the “biggest VAR call in the history of the Premier League,” and it certainly had huge ramifications at the top and bottom of the table.
“It was a massive call, but it was clearly the right call,” a relieved Arteta said. “Today I have realised how difficult and how big the referee’s job is.”
Everton’s dreams of qualifying for Europe suffered a setback as substitute Jean‑Philippe Mateta rescued Crystal Palace with a late equaliser in a 2-2 draw.
Palace, fresh from booking their place in the Conference League final on Thursday, twice came from behind.
James Tarkowski put Everton ahead early before Ismaila Sarr levelled in the 34th minute. Beto restored Everton’s lead with a brilliant solo effort, but Mateta struck in the 76th minute.
Everton are 10th on 49 points, six points back of a top-six finish and a place in Europe. Palace are 14th on 44 points.
At The City Ground, Anderson struck an 88th-minute equaliser against his former club as Forest earned a vital draw with Newcastle, a result that means they are safe.
Harvey Barnes had put Newcastle ahead.
-Reuters
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Premier League
Manchester City cut Arsenal’s lead to two points

Manchester City kept the Premier League title race bubbling with a 3-0 win over Brentford on Saturday, thanks to second-half goals by Jeremy Doku, Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush as they cut the gap with leaders Arsenal to two points with three games left.
City have 74 points from 35 games, but their draw at Everton on Monday means they need Arsenal — who visit relegation-threatened West Ham United on Sunday — to squander points in one of their remaining games to have a chance at the title.
“If you play for Manchester City, you think of titles every single day,” Haaland said of his team’s title hopes.
City dominated much of the game at The Etihad, but Brentford held strong before Doku, City’s best player on the night, produced a moment of brilliance on the hour, cutting inside from the left and curling a right-foot shot into the top corner.
Haaland gave City a two-goal cushion when he bundled the ball into the net after 75 minutes.
In what was far from the prettiest of goals, Antoine Semenyo cut the ball back for Haaland, whose shot was blocked. The big Norwegian was, though, able to back-heel the ball into the net past Caoimhin Kelleher for his 26th league goal of the season.
Marmoush struck deep in injury time when he latched onto a pass from Haaland, took a touch and then struck the ball across the keeper and into the far corner to wrap up the win.
City remain unbeaten in the league since January in a relentless run that has turned the final weeks of the season into a breathless title chase.
“We’ll see. (The title race) is not in our hands,” Guardiola said. “We will do our job. We didn’t do perfectly at Everton. It was tough. On Wednesday, we host Crystal Palace, another team set to play a European final. We just do our job and wait.”
Palace face Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League final later this month before City’s title rivals Arsenal take on Paris St Germain in the Champions League final.
BRENTFORD’S EUROPEAN HOPES DENTED
Brentford’s loss was a blow to their hopes of a place in Europe next term. They sit eighth, four points off the top six.
“We were playing against a team fighting for the title. You could see that from their urgency,” Brentford boss Keith Andrews said. “I liked a lot of what we did today. I liked the bravery and courage of our approach.”
City had 25 shots to Brentford’s four and 10 shots on target to the visitors’ two.
Phil Foden had a couple of City’s best chances, including one that forced a magnificent save from Kelleher, who managed to just flick his shot over the bar.
Brentford appealed twice for red cards to no avail.
Tempers flared in the first half when City captain Bernardo Silva and Nathan Collins battled for the ball, and Silva punched Collins in the back of the leg as he fell.
Then Kevin Schade went down in the box late on under pressure from Matheus Nunes, but after a VAR check, it was decided there was not enough contact for a penalty.
“I will be the first to tell what a difficult job they have to do on a day-to-day basis,” Andrews said.
“It’s difficult with all the contentious issues and at times the playacting. I thought the Kevin Schade incident was a penalty. So that was really disappointing.”
-Reuters
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Premier League
Man City stay in title hunt

Manchester City sent out a defiant message to Premier League title favourites Arsenal as Pep Guardiola’s side scored three second-half goals to beat visiting Brentford 3-0 on Saturday.
Anything other than a win would have left City’s hopes of reclaiming the crown hanging by a slender thread, and it looked unlikely in a subdued first half.
But a superb strike into the top corner by Jeremy Doku and further goals by Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush earned City the win that cut Arsenal’s lead to two points.
Liverpool failed to wrap up Champions League qualification as they drew 1-1 at home to Chelsea, while Bournemouth moved into sixth place with a 1-0 win at Fulham in which both sides ended with 10 men.
Brighton & Hove Albion also boosted their hopes of qualifying for Europe with a 3-0 win over bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers. Manchester United, who are already assured of a top-five finish, drew 0-0 at Sunderland.
HAMMER BLOW
City’s chaotic 3-3 draw at Everton in midweek was a hammer blow to Pep Guardiola’s side and left Arsenal in prime position to win the title for the first time since 2004.
It left City five points adrift with a game in hand, but on Saturday, they showed they are not ready to throw in the towel.
Liverpool failed to wrap up Champions League qualification as they drew 1-1 at home to Chelsea, while Bournemouth moved into sixth place with a 1-0 win at Fulham in which both sides ended with 10 men.
Brighton & Hove Albion also boosted their hopes of qualifying for Europe with a 3-0 win over bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers. Manchester United, who are already assured of a top-five finish, drew 0-0 at Sunderland.
HAMMER BLOW
City’s chaotic 3-3 draw at Everton in midweek was a hammer blow to Pep Guardiola’s side and left Arsenal in prime position to win the title for the first time since 2004.
It left City five points adrift with a game in hand, but on Saturday they showed they are not ready to throw in the towel.
They now have 74 points behind Arsenal on 76 after 35 games but the Gunners have a goal difference advantage of one. Arsenal face a tricky derby at relegation-threatened West Ham United on Sunday.
Win that, and with a home game against relegated Burnley next, Arsenal would be breathing easier, but any slip at the London Stadium would leave the door ajar for City.
City’s next game is at home to Crystal Palace on Wednesday.
“We knew we had to win after the draw (at Everton),” Belgian Doku, who scored a last-gasp equaliser at Everton, said. “When you arrive at this point you always find some energy to push through and we will continue in the next games.”
Brentford were proving a tough nut to crack until Doku cut in from the right in the 60th minute and curled an unstoppable right-foot shot high into the far corner.
They now have 74 points behind Arsenal on 76 after 35 games but the Gunners have a goal difference advantage of one. Arsenal face a tricky derby at relegation-threatened West Ham United on Sunday.
Win that, and with a home game against relegated Burnley next, Arsenal would be breathing easier, but any slip at the London Stadium would leave the door ajar for City.
City’s next game is at home to Crystal Palace on Wednesday.
“We knew we had to win after the draw (at Everton),” Belgian Doku, who scored a last-gasp equaliser at Everton, said. “When you arrive at this point you always find some energy to push through and we will continue in the next games.”
Brentford were proving a tough nut to crack until Doku cut in from the right in the 60th minute and curled an unstoppable right-foot shot high into the far corner.
Haaland then bundled his way through to a 26th league goal of the season and Marmoush slotted a silky third late on.
CHELSEA END LOSING RUN
Enzo Fernandez’s free kick secured a point for Chelsea to end their six-game losing run in the Premier League and earn caretaker manager Calum MacFarlane a first point in charge.
Liverpool had taken an early lead with a wonderful strike from the edge of the box by Ryan Gravenberch.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool remain fourth in the table with 59 points from 36 games although they could drop to fifth if Aston Villa, who have 58 points, win at Burnley on Sunday.
Liverpool’s fans vented their frustration at Anfield with derision greeting Slot’s decision to substitute teenager Rio Ngumoha while there were boos at the final whistle.
“There were a lot that didn’t agree with the change, which is completely understandable,” Slot said. “He was having problems with his muscles and, when I asked him, he said he was not sure he could continue.
“I knew this would be the reaction because he is such a good player. So often in football people don’t know everything. I am the manager and I need to make decisions.”
With sixth place potentially coming with a Champions League berth, should Villa win the Europa League final and finish fifth in the table, Bournemouth are still in the hunt for a dream debut in Europe’s elite club competition.
RAYAN STRIKES FOR BOURNEMOUTH
Brazilian teenager Rayan struck home a low shot early in the second half for Bournemouth after being teed up by Adam Smith.
Bournemouth were reduced to 10 men when Ryan Christie’s yellow card for a lunging tackle on Timothy Castagne in the 39th minute was upgraded to a red following a VAR check.
However, he was soon followed by Fulham’s Joachim Andersen for a foul on Adrien Truffert, also after a VAR check.
Brighton struck twice in the opening five minutes against Wolves with Jack Hinshelwood heading the club’s fastest-ever Premier League goal after 35 seconds.
Captain Lewis Dunk made it 2-0 with another header. Relegated Wolves improved after the break but Yankuba Minteh struck a third goal for Brighton late on.
Manchester United were fortunate to emerge with a point at Sunderland as their goalkeeper Senne Lammens made several fine saves to keep the hosts at bay at The Stadium of Light.
United did not have a single effort on target until Matheus Cunha’s stoppage-time effort was saved by Robin Roefs.
“Today is a positive result in terms of the point,” United’s caretaker coach Michael Carrick, whose side have 65 points from 36 games, said. “Was it going to be a perfect game? We weren’t expecting a perfect game. It is what it is.”
-Reuters
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