Premier League
Computers say Arsenal won’t win title, on the pitch they look like champions in waiting
The super computers and number crunchers still don’t fancy Arsenal’s chances of winning a compelling three-way Premier League title race despite, on current form, the London club being the best team in England.
Twelve months ago Arsenal were gobbled up by a relentless Manchester City in a two-horse race, but this time Mikel Arteta’s side are showing absolutely no sign of flinching and lead Liverpool on goal difference and City by one point.
They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games with the only dropped points coming in a masterful 0-0 draw at champions Manchester City that was concrete proof of how much they improved from last year’s model.
Arsenal have scored 20 times in their last five away league games in which they conceded not a single goal.
They wear the confident look of champions elect but there are caveats, notably a seven-game run in that looks tougher than Liverpool’s and Manchester City’s with matches against Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Premier League data analysts Opta ran the likely scenarios through their computer after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday and come up with a conclusion that will not be comforting for Arsenal fans.
In fact the weekend’s matches, which began with City’s 4-2 win at Crystal Palace and included Arsenal’s superlative 3-0 win away at Brighton and Hove Albion appear to have skewed the title race firmly in favour of Pep Guardiola’s City.
Before the weekend City were 33.6% likely to win a fourth successive title, according to Opta. That has now increased to 40.6%. Arsenal’s title-winning chance is 30.3% with Liverpool slipping from favourites to third at 29.1% — a 15.9% drop from before the last round of fixtures.
A look at the remaining fixtures explains why City are marginally the more likely to prevail in the tightest three-way title duel since City edged out a stumbling Liverpool and Chelsea by two and four points respectively in 2013-14.
Six of City’s last seven games are against Luton Town (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h), Fulham (a) and West Ham United (h) with their biggest test being a trip to Tottenham Hotspur.
Arsenal host fifth-placed Aston Villa on Saturday before Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a) and Everton (h).
Liverpool face Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wolves (h).
While the algorithms still favour City, Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title in 20 years are boosted by a far superior goal difference compared to their two rivals.
In a race that looks like going to the wire, that could be crucial, although Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp knows there will be many more twists and turns to come.
“I knew it would be super tricky until the end. Until yesterday we were top, now it’s Arsenal and — I don’t know when — then it may be somebody else,” he said.
-Reuters
Thomas Partey, who formerly played for English Premier League soccer club Arsenal, has been charged with rape and sexual assault, London’s Metropolitan Police said on Friday.
Partey, a Ghana international, was charged with five counts of rape and one count of sexual assault, with the charges relating to three women and the offences reported to have taken place between 2021 and 2022, the statement said.
Partey’s management did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
He is due to appear at London’s Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Aug. 5.
Partey, 32, was signed by Arsenal from Atletico Madrid for 50 million euros ($59 million) in October 2020 and became a key member of Arsenal’s first team.
He was first arrested in July 2022, though he was not named at the time and continued to play for Arsenal while investigations were ongoing.
-Reuters
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Five players including England forward Marcus Rashford and Argentina winger Alejandro Garnacho have informed Manchester United that they wish to explore a future away from the Premier League side, a club source said on Friday.
Brazilian midfielder Antony, Dutch defender Tyrell Malacia and England international Jadon Sancho are also looking to leave the club, the source added.
Rashford, who has made more than 400 senior appearances for United, has fallen out of favour with manager Ruben Amorim, played for Aston Villa on loan while United had their worst-ever Premier League campaign, finishing 15th in the standings.
Amorim had called Rashford’s work rate into question, saying he would rather put a goalkeeper coach on the bench than a player not giving their all.
Rashford said he was feeling fitter and better since joining Villa, where he scored two goals in 10 league appearances.
United also failed to qualify for the Champions League as they lost the Europa League final 1-0 to Tottenham Hotspur. Garnacho, who was a late substitute in the final, voiced his displeasure on social media after the loss.
“Up until the final, I played every round helping the team, and today I play 20 minutes, I don’t know,” he wrote in a post . “The final will influence (my decision), but the whole season, the situation of the club.”
Sancho was on loan at Chelsea, where he made 31 league appearances last season. Antony, who joined United from Ajax Amsterdam in 2022 for a reported initial transfer fee of more than $100 million, scored five goals in 17 LaLiga appearances on loan at Real Betis.
Malacia joined Dutch side PSV Eindhoven on loan in February.
-Reuters
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Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes turned down the opportunity to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal in order to keep playing “at the highest level”, he said on Tuesday.
The Portuguese midfielder admitted that he had considered the move, which media reports said was worth four times his current salary, after being contacted by Al-Hilal’s president.
“There was that possibility, the president of Al-Hilal called me a month ago to ask me about it,” Fernandes, who is preparing to face Germany with Portugal, told reporters on Tuesday.
“It was a big offer, very ambitious. There was a waiting period for me to think about the future.”
Fernandes ultimately decided to stay at United and said he was motivated by his desire to continue playing at the top level and encouraged by his family and the club’s coach Ruben Amorim.
“I would be willing to do it if Manchester United thought so,” Fernandes added. “I spoke to the coach Ruben Amorim who really tried to talk me out of it. The club said they would not be willing to sell me, only if I wanted to leave.
“I spoke to my wife and family, and she asked me what my personal goals were in my career.
“It would have been easy to move there but I want to keep myself at the highest level, playing in the big competitions and I feel capable of it. I am happy with my decision.”
The 30-year-old Fernandes scored 19 goals and provided 19 assists in 57 appearances across all competitions for United last season, winning the club’s Player of the Year award for the fourth time.
However, it was a season to forget for the team, as they finished 15th in the Premier League, their lowest league finish in half a century, and lost the Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur.
-Reuters
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