BY KUNLE SOLAJA, NEW YORK

The calculators are back.

For football fans in Nigeria, it is a familiar ritual. When your team fails to secure qualification outright, the focus shifts from what happens on the pitch to what happens elsewhere. Every goal scored in another stadium suddenly becomes important. Goal differences are checked, permutations are analysed and calculators become as essential as football boots.

That familiar scenario is now unfolding on the grandest stage of all as the FIFA World Cup 2026 group phase approaches its dramatic conclusion.

While a handful of nations have already booked their places in the Round of 32 and can look forward to the knockout rounds, many others are trapped in a complex web of permutations, hoping to survive either as runners-up or among the tournament’s eight best third-placed teams.

The expanded 48-team format has created more opportunities for survival, but it has also produced a fascinating arithmetic puzzle that may not be solved until the final group matches conclude on Saturday.

The New Rule Changing Everything

At previous World Cups, teams level on points were separated first by goal difference.

That system often kept qualification battles alive until the final moments. A team trailing by three points could still leapfrog a rival if it won heavily while the rival lost.

But FIFA’s introduction of head-to-head results as the primary tiebreaker has fundamentally altered the landscape.

Under the new system, the result between tied teams comes before goal difference, goals scored, fair-play ranking and FIFA ranking.

The effect has been immediate.

Four nations have already secured top spot in their respective groups before the final round of matches is even played.

Teams Already Through as Group Winners

The biggest beneficiaries of the new rule are: Mexico, United States, Germany and Argentina.

Each team holds a three-point advantage over its nearest challenger but, crucially, has already defeated that challenger in direct confrontation.

As a result, they cannot be overtaken even if they lose their final group matches.

Their qualification is secure and their status as group winners has already been confirmed.

It is a luxury few teams enjoyed at the same stage of the 2022 World Cup.

In Qatar, three countries had qualified after two matches, but none had guaranteed first place because goal difference still had the potential to alter the standings.

This time, there is no such uncertainty.

African Teams Still Dreaming

For Africa’s representatives, the picture is mixed. Morocco have put themselves in a strong position after victory over Scotland.   A possible win over Haiti,  following their opening draw with Brazil, has put the Atlas Lions among the teams well placed to reach the knockout rounds.

South Africa also remain firmly in contention. Bafana Bafana’s destiny remains in their own hands as they chase a historic first qualification from the World Cup group stage.

DR Congo, after drawing with Portugal and narrowly losing to Colombia, still retain hopes of progressing. Victory over Uzbekistan could keep the Leopards alive in the race for one of the best third-place positions.

Egypt, meanwhile, remain well placed heading into their final Group G encounter with Iran after collecting four points from their opening two matches.

Algeria are also still in contention and will look to secure progress in their decisive final fixture against Austria.

Not all African hopes remain alive, however.

Teams Already Heading Home

The new tiebreak system has also produced a number of early casualties. Five nations have already been eliminated. They are Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Panama.

Each side remains three points behind third place in its group, but previous head-to-head defeats mean even victories in their final matches will not rescue them.

Their World Cup campaigns are effectively over.

For Tunisia, Jordan and Panama, the disappointment is particularly painful because under previous calculations, a strong final-day performance might still have offered a mathematical chance.

This time, the head-to-head rule has shut the door early.

Third Place No Longer Means Goodbye

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the new format is that finishing third no longer automatically signals elimination.

For the first time since the 1994 World Cup, third place can be enough to advance.

Eight of the twelve third-placed teams will qualify for the Round of 32, creating an additional layer of suspense across the tournament.

Teams that fail to finish in the top two will not necessarily be packing their bags.

Instead, they will be anxiously monitoring results across multiple groups, comparing points, goal difference and goals scored in the race for the precious best-third-place tickets.

This is why the final round promises drama in almost every stadium.

Remarkably, among the 12 groups, only one match has become a genuine dead rubber: the Group D clash between the already-qualified United States and the already-eliminated Turkey.

Every other fixture carries consequences.

Countdown To The Final Verdict

As the last group matches begin, the World Cup enters its most nerve-racking phase.

For some teams, the destination is already known. Mexico, the United States, Germany and Argentina can begin planning their knockout-round strategies.

For Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Panama, the journey is over.

For everyone else, the calculators are out.

The next few days will be filled with nervous glances at mobile phones, frantic checks of live standings and constant recalculations as teams attempt to secure a place among the final 32.

By Saturday night, the mathematics will finally be complete.

Until then, the World Cup belongs as much to the calculators as it does to the footballers.

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BY KUNLE SOLAJA, NEW YORK

Argentina paused on Wednesday to celebrate the 39th birthday of football icon Lionel Messi, with fans across the country taking to the streets, workplaces, schools and social media to honour the captain whose performances at the FIFA World Cup 2026 continue to captivate the football world.

The celebrations came just days after Messi etched his name even deeper into football history by becoming the all-time leading scorer in FIFA World Cup history. The Argentine superstar has already netted five goals in two matches at the ongoing tournament, inspiring the reigning world champions’ impressive start to their campaign.

Under the hashtag #CumpleLEO, Argentine television network Telefé launched a nationwide initiative encouraging fans to sing “Happy Birthday” to Messi at 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. local time — a tribute to the iconic No. 10 jersey worn by the Argentine captain throughout his illustrious career.

The response was overwhelming.

From schoolchildren and gym-goers to office workers and neighbourhood groups, thousands of Argentines recorded and shared birthday greetings. Many waved national flags while celebrating the player widely regarded as the greatest footballer in the country’s history.

“Thank you for so much joy and for representing Argentina at the highest level. Happy birthday, champion!” said a group of employees from a car dealership in Buenos Aires Province in one of the many messages posted online.

In the heart of the capital, supporters gathered at the famous Obelisk monument in downtown Buenos Aires, turning the landmark into an impromptu birthday venue.

Among them was 71-year-old fan Rubén Acosta, who arrived before dawn to pay tribute to his hero.

“I’ve been here since 6:00 this morning,” Acosta said. “I love Messi. He’s an alien. Messi, you’re one of a kind. You’re not from this planet. You came from another galaxy.”

Argentina’s President, Javier Milei, also joined the chorus of well-wishers, posting a celebratory message on social media in honour of the football legend.

The birthday celebrations come at a time when Messi’s influence on Argentine football remains as strong as ever. Already an eight-time Ballon d’Or winner and a World Cup champion, the veteran forward continues to deliver decisive performances on football’s biggest stage.

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni offered perhaps the simplest and most heartfelt birthday message.

“That he be happy,” Scaloni said.

As Argentina continue their quest for another World Cup title, millions of fans will be hoping that the greatest birthday gift for Messi is still to come — another triumphant run deep into the tournament and perhaps one more chapter in an extraordinary football story.

 

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BY KUNLE SOLAJA.

Morocco will look to continue their impressive FIFA World Cup group-stage form when they take on Haiti in a historic first-ever World Cup meeting between the Caribbean nation and an African opponent.

The Atlas Lions arrive at the fixture unbeaten in their last six World Cup group matches, having recorded three victories and three draws during that period. That consistency has reinforced Morocco’s reputation as one of Africa’s strongest representatives on the global stage.

For Haiti, the match represents a unique challenge. Despite previous World Cup appearances, the Caribbean side have never faced an African nation at the finals. Their encounter with Morocco therefore, opens a new chapter in their World Cup history.

Morocco’s disciplined defensive organisation and growing confidence after recent successes have made them difficult opponents, while Haiti will be aiming to spring a surprise and keep their qualification hopes alive.

With knockout-round places at stake, both teams know that a positive result could prove decisive in determining their fate.

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