Premier League
Computers say Arsenal won’t win title, on the pitch they look like champions in waiting
The super computers and number crunchers still don’t fancy Arsenal’s chances of winning a compelling three-way Premier League title race despite, on current form, the London club being the best team in England.
Twelve months ago Arsenal were gobbled up by a relentless Manchester City in a two-horse race, but this time Mikel Arteta’s side are showing absolutely no sign of flinching and lead Liverpool on goal difference and City by one point.
They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games with the only dropped points coming in a masterful 0-0 draw at champions Manchester City that was concrete proof of how much they improved from last year’s model.
Arsenal have scored 20 times in their last five away league games in which they conceded not a single goal.
They wear the confident look of champions elect but there are caveats, notably a seven-game run in that looks tougher than Liverpool’s and Manchester City’s with matches against Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Premier League data analysts Opta ran the likely scenarios through their computer after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday and come up with a conclusion that will not be comforting for Arsenal fans.
In fact the weekend’s matches, which began with City’s 4-2 win at Crystal Palace and included Arsenal’s superlative 3-0 win away at Brighton and Hove Albion appear to have skewed the title race firmly in favour of Pep Guardiola’s City.
Before the weekend City were 33.6% likely to win a fourth successive title, according to Opta. That has now increased to 40.6%. Arsenal’s title-winning chance is 30.3% with Liverpool slipping from favourites to third at 29.1% — a 15.9% drop from before the last round of fixtures.
A look at the remaining fixtures explains why City are marginally the more likely to prevail in the tightest three-way title duel since City edged out a stumbling Liverpool and Chelsea by two and four points respectively in 2013-14.
Six of City’s last seven games are against Luton Town (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h), Fulham (a) and West Ham United (h) with their biggest test being a trip to Tottenham Hotspur.
Arsenal host fifth-placed Aston Villa on Saturday before Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a) and Everton (h).
Liverpool face Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wolves (h).
While the algorithms still favour City, Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title in 20 years are boosted by a far superior goal difference compared to their two rivals.
In a race that looks like going to the wire, that could be crucial, although Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp knows there will be many more twists and turns to come.
“I knew it would be super tricky until the end. Until yesterday we were top, now it’s Arsenal and — I don’t know when — then it may be somebody else,” he said.
-Reuters
Premier League
Maguire handed suspended prison sentence for 2020 brawl

England and Manchester United defender Harry Maguire has been handed a 15-month suspended prison sentence by a Greek court over a 2020 incident in Mykonos, Sky Sports reported on Wednesday.
In 2020, Maguire was found guilty of repeated bodily harm, attempted bribery and violence against public employees after his arrest in a brawl in which two police officers were assaulted.
Maguire, who was detained for two days following the incident and denied any wrongdoing, was handed a suspended prison sentence of 21 months and 10 days but was granted a full retrial after appealing against Greek court convictions on multiple charges.
In accordance with the Greek judicial process, the filing nullified Maguire’s conviction before a full retrial in a more senior court. His retrial was postponed many times.
Maguire faced allegations of non-serious assault, resisting arrest and attempted bribery. The 32-year-old was convicted on all three counts but will face no prison time. His legal team will appeal against the guilty verdict, Sky Sports reported.
Maguire’s brother Joe and friend Christopher Sharman were also found guilty of offences related to the incident and received suspended prison sentences in 2020. They also denied any wrongdoing.
-Reuters
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Premier League
Timber header earns Arsenal crucial win over Chelsea

Arsenal maintained control of the Premier League title race as they chiselled out a nervy 2-1 win over London rivals Chelsea to open up a five-point lead at the top of the table on Sunday.
Jurrien Timber’s 66th-minute header from a Declan Rice corner ensured Arsenal took three precious points, but it was a nervy afternoon in north London.
Mikel Arteta’s side moved to 64 points from 29 games, with Manchester City, who have played a game fewer, on 59.

Arsenal’s Jurrien Timber celebrates scoring their second goal with Gabriel Magalhaes REUTERS/Jaimi Joy
Defender William Saliba had given Arsenal the lead in the 21st minute from a trademark corner routine.
But it had looked as though an own goal by Piero Hincapie just before halftime would prove costly for the hosts until Timber came to their rescue.
Chelsea, whose six-match unbeaten league sequence under new manager Liam Rosenior was halted, ended the match with 10 men after Pedro Neto was sent off for a second yellow card.
-Reuters
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Premier League
Manchester United climb to third in Premier League table with come-from-behind win over Palace

Manchester United produced a stirring second-half comeback to defeat Crystal Palace 2–1 at Old Trafford on Sunday, with captain Bruno Fernandes inspiring the turnaround that lifted the hosts into third place in the Premier League standings.
Trailing inside four minutes after a dominant start by Palace, United responded through a Fernandes penalty before his pinpoint free-kick was headed home by Benjamin Sesko to seal victory against the 10-man visitors.
The win extended interim manager Michael Carrick’s unbeaten run to seven matches since taking charge in mid-January. United now have 51 points from 28 games and are unbeaten since the January 5 dismissal of Ruben Amorim, climbing into third for the first time since May 2023. Palace remain 14th on 35 points.
“It feels like a big result, we were behind and had to show some character,” Fernandes told Sky Sports. “There are a lot of games to go still, and it is important that we don’t feel that we are in the position that we need to be. We need to make as many points as we can.”
Palace, under Oliver Glasner, were electric in the opening half hour, capitalising on sluggish United play. Defender Maxence Lacroix powered home a header from a corner after muscling past Leny Yoro, scoring the earliest goal United have conceded this season.
The visitors nearly doubled their advantage when Daniel Munoz latched onto an Ismaila Sarr through ball, but goalkeeper Senne Lammens produced a crucial save.
United gradually found their rhythm before the break. Sesko forced Dean Henderson into action with a header from a Fernandes cross, and the Palace keeper also tipped a Fernandes free kick over the bar.
The turning point arrived in the 57th minute when Fernandes converted from the penalty spot after Matheus Cunha was dragged down by Lacroix. Following a lengthy VAR review, Lacroix was shown a red card, reducing Palace to 10 men.
Eight minutes later, Fernandes’ delivery again proved decisive as Sesko rose highest to nod home the winning goal.
United pushed for a third, with Casemiro’s volley drawing a diving save from Henderson and substitute Amad Diallo testing the keeper from distance in stoppage time. Joshua Zirkzee saw efforts blocked, while Kobbie Mainoo’s fierce strike drifted narrowly wide.
Carrick praised his team’s resilience. “The biggest thing for us to take from the game is really the first time that we have been in that situation going in at halftime,” he said. “Being in that position and how we react and showing that personality and belief… to then come back as we did in the second half is the biggest thing for me today.”
Palace pressed late but could not find an equaliser. Glasner admitted his side had let the game slip. “It feels like there was more possible today. A great first 30 minutes, but the red card changed it completely. The second goal just happened too quickly.”
For United, the victory reinforces growing belief under Carrick that a top-four finish—and a return to Europe’s elite competition—is firmly within reach.
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