Governing Bodies
Consequences and Financial Implications of Tokyo 2020 Cancellation
Cancelling the Tokyo Olympics in response to mounting public opposition in Japan to holding the Games during the Covid-19 pandemic would be an unparalleled act in peacetime.
It would represent a bombshell for the sporting world and have far-reaching and complex financial consequences.
While the Japanese government and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) say they are confident they can stage a safe Games, opinion polls in Japan show more than 80 per cent of residents are opposed just over two months before the opening ceremony.
Here are some of the key considerations:
1. Who would take the decision to cancel?
Formally, the host city’s contract signed by Japanese organisers puts that responsibility on the shoulders of the IOC should there be war or civil disorder, or if it deems that participants’ safety is “seriously threatened or jeopardised for any reason whatsoever”.
The IOC, however has no intention of cancelling, and is convinced that a safe and secure Olympics can be held for the 11,000 expected athletes in the Japanese capital.
But calls for a cancellation have been ramping up in Japan, where concern has been expressed at stretched medical facilities and polls show overwhelming support from the local population for scrapping the Games. The vaccination roll-out in Japan has been slow to get off the ground, and national and local elections are also coming into view.
“The closer we get to the Games, the less control the IOC has – it wants to maintain the fiction that the IOC is the boss, but it will not impose the Games on the Japanese authorities,” says Jean-Loup Chappelet, emeritus professor at the University of Lausanne, whose research is focused on the governance of international sport organisations and events.
Entirely “political”, the decision therefore depends on both the Japanese state and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, even if all parties agree “to a joint announcement with the IOC, as was the case for the postponement decided in March 2020”, Chappelet told AFP.
2. What are the consequences for Japan?
A large part of the Games budget has already been spent. Re-evaluated at the end of 2020 at US$15.4 billion (S$20 billion), more than half of this expenditure is made up of public investments in permanent sites around Tokyo.
A cancellation would reduce operating costs linked to the Games themselves: catering, transport, energy and the rehabilitation of the Olympic Village before it is turned into apartments. But it would also, above all, slash revenues.
Japan has already bitten the bullet on missing out on ticket sales estimated at US$800 million due to ban on foreign fans. A decision is yet to be taken on whether to allow limited numbers of local fans into venues.
Organisers would also be stuck with an enormous bill: a partial reimbursement for local sponsors to the tune of US$3.3 billion, while they would probably have to pay back the IOC’s contribution of US$1.3 billion.
3. What would a cancellation cost the IOC?
The IOC has never divulged what revenues it expects from the Tokyo Games, the reason being the body only publishes its revenues on a four-year cycle. Revenues in the 2013-16 cycle covering the Sochi Winter Games and the 2016 Rio Summer Games touched US$5.7 billion.
Three-quarters of those revenues come from broadcasting rights, with insiders estimating that the IOC will receive at least US$1.5 billion for Tokyo, a sum it would have to pay back should the Games be cancelled.
The remaining revenues come from international sponsors and a cancellation would involve detailed negotiations with each partner on how much they could recoup.
There is no doubt the IOC, which keeps only 10 per cent of its revenues and has reserves of more than US$1 billion, would be hit hard should it be deprived of this financial windfall.
Also in danger would be the entire sports movement since the IOC finances both National Olympic Committees and international federations – and they are already under the financial cost because of the coronavirus pandemic.
4. What would insurance cover?
This remains the principal mystery: Since the 2006 Winter Games in Turin, the IOC has been insured against the risk of cancellation, “but it is not known whether the policy remained at the original amount, around US$900 million, or was lowered” as the Lausanne-based body’s reserves swelled, according to Patrick Vajda, head of XAW Sports, which specialises in risk management and insurance solutions for sports events.
In any case, indemnity would only cover a part of the potential losses, and there is nothing to say that the Japanese organisers would recoup anything from their side: They have never confirmed that they are covered against a cancellation.
Vajda told AFP that some broadcasters such as NBC in the United States are insured, for amounts not publicly revealed, and some international federations have also been able “to sign up to the IOC’s cancellation policy”.
-AFP
Governing Bodies
Zimbabwe sports minister among candidates for International Olympic Committee presidency
A total of seven candidates are running for the presidency of the International Olympic Committee with the winner replacing outgoing president Thomas Bach at elections in March 2025 in ancient Olympia, Greece.
Kirsty Coventry:
Age: 41
Country: Zimbabwe
Entry into the IOC: 2013
An Olympic swimming champion and Zimbabwe’s most successful Olympian, Coventry is Zimbabwe’s Sports Minister. She is the only woman among the candidates and the only one from Africa.
Prince Feisal Al Hussein:
Age: 60
Country: Jordan
Entry into the IOC: 2010
Prince Feisal heads the Jordan Olympic Committee and has been an IOC executive board member since 2019. An Executive Board member of the Olympic Council of Asia, Prince Feisal has also held several posts at the Royal Jordanian Air Force.
Sebastian Coe:
Age: 67
Country: Britain
Entry into the IOC: 2020
An Olympic track and field champion and head of World Athletics, Coe also led the organisation for the 2012 London Olympics. A former Conservative Member of Parliament, Coe is also involved in sports consultancy and is a former head of the British Olympic Association.
Johan Eliasch:
Age: 62
Country: Britain
Entry into the IOC: 2024
The wealthy Swedish-born entrepreneur with a variety of business interests has headed the international skiing federation since 2021. He only joined the IOC in July at its session in the Paris Olympics.
David Lappartient:
Age: 51
Country: France
Entry into the IOC: 2022
A rising figure in world sports administration. He heads the international cycling body, UCI, and is in charge of esports within the IOC, having helped seal a 12-year deal with Saudi Arabia earlier this year for the Olympic esports Games.
Juan Antonio Samaranch:
Age: 64
Country: Spain
Entry into the IOC: 2001
The son of the late former IOC president, Samaranch has considerable IOC experience and influence in his six years as vice president and 23 as a member. He headed the coordination commission for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.
Morinari Watanabe:
Age: 65
Country: Japan
Entry into the IOC: 2018
Watanabe has headed the gymnastics federation (FIG) since 2016, having been re-elected twice since. He is the first Japanese candidate to run for the IOC presidency.
Governing Bodies
World Athletics boss, Coe and multi-millionaire Eliasch among seven candidates for IOC presidency
World athletics chief Sebastian Coe, multi-millionaire and Olympic newcomer Johan Eliasch and Zimbabwe’s Sports Minister Kirsty Coventry are among seven candidates for next year’s International Olympic Committee presidency election, the IOC said on Monday.
IOC Vice President Juan Antonio Samaranch, son of the late former IOC president, international cycling chief David Lappartient, Prince Feisal Al Hussein of Jordan and international gymnastics federation head Morinari Watanabe are also in the running to succeed current president Thomas Bach.
The 70-year-old German is stepping down next year after 12 years at the helm. The election will be held at the IOC session in ancient Olympia, Greece in March 2025.
The candidates will all present their programmes, behind closed doors, to the full IOC membership in January 2025.
The IOC, with 111 members currently, is in charge of the Olympic Games and the multi-billion dollar industry linked to the world’s biggest multi-sports event.
Bach’s departure comes with the organisation in a financially robust position, having secured $7.3 billion for the years 2025-28 and $6.2 billion already in deals for 2029-2032.
The president is elected to an eight-year first term with the possibility of a second term of four years, if re-elected.
Coe, 67, only joined the IOC in 2020 after a rocky relationship between World Athletics and the IOC over Coe’s ban of Russian track and field athletes almost a decade ago following the country’s doping scandal.
A former Olympic champion with a wealth of experience in the sports world, Coe was previously head of the London 2012 Games and the British Olympic Association. He is also a former Conservative Member of Parliament.
Coventry, 41, is the only woman running for president and the former Olympic swimming champion, who is Zimbabwe’s most decorated Olympian, could become not only the first female president but also the first from Africa.
MALE PRESIDENTS
All IOC presidents have been men, with eight of the nine from Europe and one from the United States.
The 62-year-old Eliasch, head of the International Ski and Snowboard Federation (FIS), only joined the IOC in July, with the Swedish-born British businessman’s candidacy a surprise for some.
Prince Feisal, 60, is a member of the IOC executive board, having joined the organisation in 2010, while Spaniard Samaranch, with considerable IOC experience in his six years as vice president, headed the coordination commission for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.
“The IOC and Olympic movement have made enormous strides over the past decade under the leadership of Mr Bach,” said Samaranch in a statement.
“The IOC now needs a new leader with deep experience of the Olympic movement who can help steer it through this period of upheaval.”
UCI chief Lappartient has been a rapidly rising figure within the sports world after joining the IOC in 2022.
The Frenchman also is in charge of esports within the IOC, having helped seal a 12-year deal with Saudi Arabia earlier this year for the Olympic esports Games.
Japan’s Watanabe, 65, has headed the gymnastics federation (FIG) since 2016, having been re-elected twice since, and is his country’s first ever candidate for the IOC presidency.
Under current rules members have to step down when they reach 70, the IOC’s age limit, unless they are given a four-year extension.
-Reuters
There is currently insinuations that proposed certain elements may have smuggled modifications to amend the Statutes of the Confederation of African Football (CAF) when the body holds its General Assembly next month in Kinshasa, Congo next month.
The confederation will be having its 46th General Assembly on 10th October. It is at such gatherings that amendments are made to existing rules.
According to an article authored by Mansour Loum, the editor of Sports News Africa, some national football federations have denied being party to proposed amendments which were linked to them.
One of such is coming from the Equatorial Guinea Football Federation which has denied signing proposals being circulated relating to amendments to CAF Statutes.
It is claimed that a circular dated 8 September has been sent to CAF member associations. Signed by CAF General Secretary, Véron Mosengo-Omba, it is titled: “Proposals for amendments to the CAF statutes and regulations for the application of the statutes, as well as the rules of procedure of the CAF General Assembly, presented by the national associations.”
Seven member associations were quoted as sponsoring the amendments. They are: Botswana, Comoros, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Mauritania and Niger.
But Equatorial Guinea has denied being party to the proposed amendment which seek to remove age barrier for candidates seeking to be CAF Presidents and also removing zonal considerations in election into FIFA Council.
The current Statute stipulates that a presidential candidate must not be older than 70 as at the date of election.
Most of the national federation members are already approaching that age. In the estimation of the author of the article, Mansour Loum, the current CAF president, Patrice Motsepe, is 62 years old. With the age limit, he could, for example, only run for two more terms.
Continuing, Loum wrote that regarding the elections to the FIFA Council, each zone has a representative on the FIFA Council and candidates for these positions can only be elected by the presidents of the member associations of their group zone.
Thus, the presidents of French-speaking federations can only vote for a French-speaking representative, the English-speakers for the English-speaking group, and so on.
The distribution of seats on the FIFA Council is currently as follows:
Francophone Group – Two members
Anglophone Group – Two members
Arabophone/Lusophone/Hispanophone Group – Two members
One female member elected from among the female candidates, regardless of language groups
The modification of the grouping by zonal unions would mean that all presidents could vote for candidates outside their group, or that the candidates would also no longer be limited to a group.
Several candidates from the same group could be elected to the FIFA Council, while at the same time some groups could no longer be represented.
Equatorial Guinea disputes any request for modification. The football federation president, Venancio Tomas Ndong Micha has reportedly denied being party to the proposed amendments.
“I am writing to you to present the disagreement of the Equatorial Guinean Football Federation with part of the content of the document sent to the CAF Executive Council on September 8, 2024 signed by you (…)
“In this document, there are amendments presented by the Equatorial Guinean Football Federation (…) By this letter, we confirm that the Equatorial Guinean Football Federation has not submitted any amendments to the CAF administration for the 46th CAF Ordinary General Assembly to be held on Thursday, October 10, 2024 in Kinshasa,” he denounces.
Enough to cast doubt on this document sent by the CAF secretary general and the objective targeted. Contacted, a federation president, whose body is not mentioned in the letter, is surprised by these two requests for amendments and wonders about their intentions.
The press release from the Equatorial Guinean Football Federation has sown doubt and now he is questioning the originality of the attachments included in this document which is likely to be talked about between now and the CAF General Assembly.
– Mansour Loum
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