By Kunle Solaja, Rabat enroute Fes

Nigeria will resume their push for a fourth continental crown this Monday when they face Mozambique in a Round of 16 clash at the Stade de Fes.

The Super Eagles go into the duel in buoyant mood after a flawless group-stage campaign, while Mozambique’s Mambas are making history by reaching the knockout phase of the competition for the first time.

Nigeria, three-time champions, are chasing a fourth AFCON title and will be keen to translate their group-stage authority into another deep run.

It will be only the second meeting between the two sides at the Africa Cup of Nations. Their previous encounter came in the final group game of the 2010 tournament, when Nigeria recorded a commanding 3–0 victory. Peter Odemwingie struck twice either side of half-time, while Obafemi Martins added a late third.

Overall, the teams have met five times across all competitions, with Nigeria unbeaten, recording four wins and one draw.

They were also paired in the second round of qualifying for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, which doubled as AFCON qualifiers.

The first leg in Maputo in March 2009 ended goalless before Nigeria edged the return fixture 1–0 in October, thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Victor Obinna. Nigeria went on to qualify for the World Cup, while both teams reached the 2010 AFCON finals.

Their most recent meeting was a friendly international in October 2023 in Albufeira, Portugal, which Nigeria won 3–2. Goals from Terem Moffi, Frank Onyeka and Moses Simon sealed the win, with Geny Catamo and Faisal replying for Mozambique.

Nigeria’s group-stage performance in this edition has been one of their most convincing at AFCON. They have now won all three group matches for the fourth time overall, having previously achieved the feat in 1992, 2006 and 2021 — with the 1992 edition featuring three-team groups.

Victory over Uganda marked Nigeria’s 61st win in AFCON history, the second-highest total in the competition’s history, behind only Egypt.

The Super Eagles scored eight goals in the group phase, their highest tally at this stage of the competition, and found the net at least twice in each group match for the first time at AFCON.

 However, they also conceded four goals, taking their total goals conceded in AFCON history to 99. Another concession would see Nigeria become the fourth nation to concede 100 or more goals at the tournament, alongside Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo and Tunisia.

Nigeria have scored in their last 10 AFCON matches — their longest scoring streak at the tournament — but have also conceded in each of their last five games. Their last clean sheet came in a 1–0 quarter-final win over Angola in 2023.

This will be Nigeria’s fourth appearance in the Round of 16 since the format was introduced. They progressed in 2019 and 2023 but were eliminated in 2021. Notable knockout victories include a 3–2 win over Cameroon in 2019, inspired by a brace from Odion Ighalo, and a 2–0 success against the same opponents in 2023, when Ademola Lookman scored both goals.

A win over Mozambique would send Nigeria into the quarter-finals for the 12th time. Since the quarter-final stage was introduced in 1992, the Super Eagles have failed to reach the last eight only once — a reminder of both their pedigree and the expectations that follow them into Monday night’s encounter in Fes.

Nigeria versus Mozambique: Head-to-Head

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By Kunle Solaja, Rabat enroute Fes

Nigeria’s Super Eagles head into the knockout phase of the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 with a sense of confidence tempered by caution, mindful of a painful lesson from the recent past.

At the 2021 finals in Cameroon, Nigeria appeared perfectly placed for a deep run. The Super Eagles swept through the group stage with a 100% record, winning all three matches at the same venue in Garoua and building momentum ahead of the Round of 16. Their next opponents, Tunisia, arrived weakened by Covid-19, with several key players and officials ruled out after testing positive.

Yet, against expectation, Tunisia produced one of the tournament’s biggest upsets, eliminating Nigeria and abruptly ending what had looked like a promising campaign. The shock exit has since served as a reminder that knockout football at AFCON rarely follows form or logic.

Four years on, the backdrop feels uncomfortably familiar. At AFCON 2025 in Morocco, Nigeria again completed the group stage with maximum points, playing all their matches in Fes. Once more, the Super Eagles are set to face an opponent widely regarded as less fancied — Mozambique — in the Round of 16 at the Stade de Fes.

Mozambique, however, arrive buoyed by belief after reaching the knockout phase for the first time in their history, and Nigeria are wary of underestimating them.

The narrow 1–0 win by Morocco over Tanzania on Sunday offered a timely warning, as the supposedly weaker side pushed the tournament hosts to the limit.

That performance has reinforced the message within the Nigerian camp: reputations count for little once the knockout stage begins. With memories of Garoua still fresh, the Super Eagles know that discipline, focus and respect for the opposition will be crucial if they are to avoid a repeat of the 2021 disappointment and keep their quest for a fourth continental title firmly on track.

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By Kunle Solaja, Rabat, enroute Fes

The Africa Cup of Nations 2025 has shifted decisively into knockout mode, with no margin for error as the Round of 16 unfolds across Morocco.

By the end of Day Two of the last-16 fixtures, four teams had already been eliminated, their tournament journeys ending abruptly, as attention now turns to the remaining contenders chasing the eight quarter-final places.

With draws no longer an option, the competition has entered what many coaches describe as football’s most unforgiving phase. Defeat now means immediate exit, and for those knocked out, the road leads away from the stadiums to the departure halls at the Mohammed V International Airport.

For the managers still standing, the pressure is intense. Team selection, tactical planning, opponent analysis, fitness levels and even weather conditions are being scrutinised in minute detail as each coach searches for the edge that could keep their campaign alive. Yet history suggests that beyond all tactical considerations, one element often proves decisive at this stage: the ability to convert from the penalty spot.

Penalty shoot-outs have become an inescapable feature of knockout football, and AFCON is no exception. One of the Round of 16 matches — Mali versus Tunisia — has already been settled from 12 yards, reinforcing a long-standing trend at the continental finals. Since Didier Drogba missed a crucial penalty in the 2006 AFCON final against Egypt, the tournament has repeatedly shown how even the biggest names can falter under pressure.

Nigeria know this reality all too well. Penalty misfortune denied the Super Eagles the title on home soil in 2000, and as recently as November, they were eliminated from World Cup qualification contention following a shoot-out defeat to DR Congo. Across their AFCON history, penalties have played a decisive role in at least eight of Nigeria’s last 15 tournament appearances, shaping outcomes in 1984, 1988, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2010.

The drama of penalties is not confined to Africa. At the highest level of world football, icons such as Zico, Diego Maradona, Roberto Baggio and Lionel Messi have all missed penalties on the biggest stages. Messi’s miss against Poland at the FIFA World Cup 2022 added to a long list of examples showing that no player is immune to the psychological weight of the moment.

AFCON history mirrors this global pattern. Four of the last eight AFCON finals have been decided by penalty shoot-outs, while spot-kicks have influenced the outcome of 14 of the last 22 championships since Libya 1982 — the first AFCON final settled on penalties. Celebrated African stars such as Nwankwo Kanu, Victor Ikpeba, Samuel Eto’o and Drogba have all missed from the spot at critical moments.

More recently, Achraf Hakimi saw Morocco’s 2023 campaign unravel after failing to convert a penalty in their Round of 16 loss to South Africa. The pattern is familiar: goalkeepers who save become heroes, while those who miss are left to shoulder the burden of elimination.

As AFCON 2025 accelerates towards its climax, the message is unmistakable. Beyond tactics and technique, success may hinge on nerve, composure and preparation from 12 yards. In a tournament where the margins are razor-thin, penalties once again threaten to define who marches on — and who leaves Morocco in tears.

Litany of penalty kicks at the Africa Cup of Nations

• 1982– Penalty shoot-out decided the final match between Ghana and Libya.
• 1984– Penalty shoot-out took Nigeria to the final.
• 1986– Penalty shoot-out decided the final match between Egypt and Cameroon.
• 1988– Penalty shoot-out propelled Nigeria to the final. Penalty for Cameroon decided Nigeria’s fate in the final.
• 1992– Penalty shoot-out decided the final match between Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire.
• 1994 – Penalty shoot-out played a crucial role in Nigeria’s march to the final, beating Cote d’Ivoire 4-2 at the semi-finals.
• 2000– Penalty shoot-out decided Nigeria’s fate in the final match with Cameroon.
• 2002 – Penalty loss against Senegal in the semi-finals decided Nigeria’s fate. The final match of Cameroon and Senegal was decided by penalties.
• 2004– Penalty shoot-out decided Nigeria’s fate in the semifinals as Tunisia had a 5-3
• 2006 – Nigeria were involved in a penalty shoot-out in the quarter finals. The final match of Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire also decided on penalties.
• 2010 – Nigeria profited from a penalty shoot-out, beating Zambia 5-4 in the quarter finals.
• 2012 – Quarter-finals match of Gabon and Mali was decided by penalties. The final match of Zambia and Cote d’Ivoire was also decided by penalties.
• 2013– Quarter finals duel of South Africa and Mali, as well as the semi-finals of Burkina Faso and Ghana, were decided by penalty shoot-out.
• 2015– The third-place duel of DR Congo and Equatorial Guinea and the final match of Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana were decided by penalties.
• 2017 – Quarter-final match of Senegal and Cameroon, and the semifinals of Burkina Faso and Egypt were penalty kicks decided.
• 2019– Three Round of 16 matches (Morocco v Benin, Madagascar v DR Congo and Ghana v Tunisia), as well as the quarter-final of Cote d’Ivoire and Algeria, were decided by penalty shoot-out.
• 2021 – Again, three Round of 16 matches were decided by penalty shoot-out (Burkina Faso v Gabon, Cote d’Ivoire v Egypt and Mali v Equatorial Guinea) as well as the semi-final match of Egypt and Cameroon, and the final match of Senegal and Egypt were decided by penalty shoot-out.
• 2023– Defending champions, Senegal, were eliminated in the Round of 16 after a 5-4 penalty shootout loss to Cote d’Ivoire. Egypt got eliminated by DR Congo in an 8-7 penalty shootout loss. Also, South Africa eliminated Cape Verde in a penalty shootout before they lost similarly to Nigeria in the semi-final. They won the third-place match via penalty shootout.
• 2025– Mali eliminated Tunisia in a Round of 16 penalty shootout.

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