International Football
VIEWS FROM ELSEWHERE: FIFA RANKING IS NONSENSICAL
SB Nation is a sports news website owned and operated by Vox Media. Established in 2005, the site comprises 320 blogs covering individual professional and college sports teams, and other sports-oriented topics. Kevin McCauley of SB Nation gives his views on the FIFA ranking.
He headlines his views thus:
The FIFA rankings stink. Here’s what the 2018 World Cup would look like with good rankings.
The FIFA men’s rankings are almost universally derided as nonsensical. They are not predictive in any way, and they are easily manipulated with smart scheduling.
This is a problem, given that they’re the basis for seeding in international tournaments. The 2018 World Cup draw has been set, and the pots are based on FIFA’s bad rankings. But what if they were based on considerably less bad rankings?
Currently, the best thing we have to go on is ELO, a system used to rate chess players. No one’s publicly released a widely respected and proven ranking system like KenPom or Sagarin (which uses ELO as a component) for soccer, but we do have reason to believe that ELO is a lot better than FIFA’s men’s rankings.
Even FIFA seems to have some idea that this is case, since their women’s rankings are based on ELO and much more predictive than their men’s rankings.
Using information from ELOratings.net, here’s what the World Cup draw pots would look like if ELO was the ranking system, leaving Russia as a Pot 1 team for being hosts.
Pot 1: Russia, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, Argentina, England
Pot 2: Colombia, Belgium, Peru, Uruguay, Switzerland, Croatia, Mexico, Poland.
Pot 3: Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, Iran, Serbia, Senegal, Japan, Costa Rica.
Pot 4: Australia, South Korea, Nigeria, Morocco, Panama, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia.
And for comparison, here are the actual World Cup Draw pots. Some big differences stand out.
England and Spain are underrated, Belgium and Poland overrated
Poland got a top seed for the real World Cup draw, but ELO only ranks them as the 15th best qualifier.
Conversely, Spain is a Pot 2 team in real life, but ELO thinks they’re the third best team in the world. Belgium and England also swap pots if ELO is used to rank teams, which English fans will likely find outrageous.
Don’t sleep on Asia’s best
You probably haven’t heard much hype for Japan or Iran, but ELO likes them quite a bit more than FIFA. Whichever groups they get drawn into in December are unlikely to be considered the “Group of Death,” but perhaps they should be.
What are the best possible groups in the World Cup?
It’s fun to consider what the draw might look like with good rankings, but it’s probably even more fun to use ELO to look at the best possible real life draw scenarios.
The group with the highest possible ELO rating is: Brazil, Spain, Iran and Serbia. But some other scenarios are even juicier.
There’s also a great way to get two almost equally nasty groups of death. Brazil, Spain, Sweden and Japan could be in one group, while Germany, Colombia, Iran and Serbia could make up another. Argentina, England, Denmark and Australia would make up the next strongest possible group in that scenario, leaving us with three groups where every game is must-watch.
What’s the weakest possible group?
Unsurprisingly, all of the weakest possible groups feature Russia. The hosts’ ELO rank of 45 means they’re probably better than FIFA’s ranking of 65 suggests, but they’re only ahead of four other teams. They also all feature Saudi Arabia, the lowest-rated team in the World Cup.
Russia, Mexico, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia would make up the worst possible group, according to ELO. While El Tri supporters might not be a fan of that disrespect, they’ll certainly be pleased if that group pops up during the draw on December 1.
Nigeria’s Super Eagles put up a spirited performance but were edged 2-1 by Portugal in an international friendly at the Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria on Wednesday night.
The match served as Portugal’s final tune-up ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America and offered the Nigerians a chance to test themselves against one of Europe’s leading sides led by veteran captain Cristiano Ronaldo.
Portugal drew first blood in the 23rd minute when Pedro Neto broke the deadlock, firing past Nigerian goalkeeper Maduka Okoye after a lively opening period in which both teams created opportunities.
The Super Eagles responded positively and were rewarded eight minutes before halftime when striker Akor Adams found the equaliser. The goal capped an impressive Nigerian fightback and ensured the teams went into the break level at 1-1.
Ronaldo, making a rare appearance against Nigeria, started the match and remained on the pitch until the 67th minute. The 41-year-old was given a standing ovation by the home crowd when he was replaced by Gonçalo Ramos.
Portugal made several changes after the interval as coach Roberto Martinez rotated his squad in preparation for the World Cup. Despite the substitutions, the hosts continued to press for a winner.
Their persistence paid off in the 75th minute when Francisco Conceição struck the decisive goal, restoring Portugal’s lead and ultimately securing victory for the European side.
Nigeria battled to find another equaliser in the closing stages but Portugal’s defence held firm to preserve the 2-1 result.
The defeat means Portugal have now won both meetings between the two countries. Their first encounter came in Lisbon in November 2022, when the Portuguese recorded a convincing 4-0 victory in a pre-World Cup friendly.
While the result will disappoint Nigerian supporters, the Super Eagles can take encouragement from their resilient display against one of the teams widely tipped to make a strong impact at the World Cup. Akor Adams’ goal and Nigeria’s competitive showing against a star-studded Portuguese side provided positive signs as the team continues its rebuilding process under the national team set-up.
For Portugal, the victory provides a confidence boost as they head to North America, where they hope their talented midfield and experienced squad can propel them to a successful World Cup campaign.
Join the Sports Village Square channel on WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vaz7mEIGk1FxU8YIXb0H
Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo will be in the starting line-up when the Selecao take on Nigeria in an international friendly match which kicks off in a few minutes tonight.
The 41-year-old forward, who remains a key figure in the Portuguese national team, has been named among the starters as Portugal continue preparations for upcoming competitive fixtures.
Ronaldo’s inclusion is expected to add further excitement to the encounter, with Nigerian fans eager to see one of football’s greatest players in action against the Super Eagles.
The match offers Nigeria another opportunity to test themselves against top European opposition, while Portugal will look to sharpen their squad ahead of future international assignments.
Kick-off is scheduled for later tonight, with both teams expected to field strong line-ups in what promises to be an entertaining contest.
Join the Sports Village Square channel on WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vaz7mEIGk1FxU8YIXb0H
By Kunle Solaja
Nigeria’s Super Eagles and Portugal will meet for only the second time at the senior level when they clash in an international friendly in Leiria on Wednesday night.
The encounter comes under remarkably similar circumstances to their first meeting in November 2022, when Portugal defeated Nigeria 4-0 in Lisbon just days before the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
Once again, Portugal are using Nigeria as their final warm-up match before the World Cup. Four years ago, the Portuguese selected the Super Eagles to prepare for a group-stage clash against Ghana, the team that denied Nigeria a place at Qatar 2022.
History appears to be repeating itself. This time, Portugal are preparing for a World Cup opening fixture against the Democratic Republic of Congo, another team that shattered Nigeria’s World Cup ambitions by eliminating the Super Eagles from the qualification race.
The match at the 29,000-capacity Estádio Dr Magalhães Pessoa offers Nigeria an opportunity to avenge the heavy defeat suffered four years ago and test themselves against one of Europe’s strongest sides.
Portugal coach Roberto Martinez has assembled a star-studded squad featuring five-time Ballon d’Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias, Rafael Leão and João Félix.
The Portuguese head into the encounter unbeaten in their last four matches, having recorded victories over the United States and Chile while drawing with Mexico.
Nigeria, under coach Eric Chelle, have also enjoyed an impressive run. Since taking charge 15 months ago, the Franco-Malian tactician has overseen 24 matches and suffered only one defeat in regulation time.
With both teams carrying impressive recent records, Wednesday’s friendly promises to be far more competitive than the scoreline from their last meeting suggests.
Join the Sports Village Square channel on WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vaz7mEIGk1FxU8YIXb0H
VIDEO: GHD Documentary Celebrates Kunle Solaja’s Remarkable Journey Across 10 FIFA World Cups
adidas Unveils Gold-Coloured TRIONDA FINAL Ball For World Cup’s Closing Stages
Hossam Hassan Blames Refereeing Decisions For Egypt’s Heartbreaking Exit
Breaking! Uzoho suspended from Super Eagles’ next match with Sierra Leone
No longer Super League as CAF changes name of its new clubs competition
NIGERIAN FOOTBALL CHIEF EXECUTIVE, SANUSI CHARGES NIGERIAN COACHES TO BE UPRIGHT, DILIGENT
- World Cup6 days ago
What a Load of Rubbish! How Senegal Threw Away a World Cup Dream
- World Cup2 days ago
Bizarre! FIFA makes U-turn to clear Balogun for US v Belgium World Cup clash following call from Trump
- World Cup1 week ago
Beyond the World Cup: A Journalist’s Reflection at Ground Zero
- World Cup6 days ago
Cry for Africa, My Beloved Continent: How four decades of World Cup heartbreak continue to haunt African football
- World Cup6 days ago
Celebrating a Decade of World Cup Coverage: A Tribute to Kunle Solaja
- World Cup4 days ago
Pharaohs End World Cup Knockout Hoodoo, Beat Australia on Penalties to Reach Last 16
- World Cup1 week ago
Mbappe Double Fires France into Last 16 as Sweden Swept Aside
- World Cup2 days ago
Article 27: The Little-Known FIFA Rule Behind Balogun’s World Cup Reprieve