International Football
VIEWS FROM ELSEWHERE: FIFA RANKING IS NONSENSICAL
SB Nation is a sports news website owned and operated by Vox Media. Established in 2005, the site comprises 320 blogs covering individual professional and college sports teams, and other sports-oriented topics. Kevin McCauley of SB Nation gives his views on the FIFA ranking.
He headlines his views thus:
The FIFA rankings stink. Here’s what the 2018 World Cup would look like with good rankings.
The FIFA men’s rankings are almost universally derided as nonsensical. They are not predictive in any way, and they are easily manipulated with smart scheduling.
This is a problem, given that they’re the basis for seeding in international tournaments. The 2018 World Cup draw has been set, and the pots are based on FIFA’s bad rankings. But what if they were based on considerably less bad rankings?
Currently, the best thing we have to go on is ELO, a system used to rate chess players. No one’s publicly released a widely respected and proven ranking system like KenPom or Sagarin (which uses ELO as a component) for soccer, but we do have reason to believe that ELO is a lot better than FIFA’s men’s rankings.
Even FIFA seems to have some idea that this is case, since their women’s rankings are based on ELO and much more predictive than their men’s rankings.
Using information from ELOratings.net, here’s what the World Cup draw pots would look like if ELO was the ranking system, leaving Russia as a Pot 1 team for being hosts.
Pot 1: Russia, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, Argentina, England
Pot 2: Colombia, Belgium, Peru, Uruguay, Switzerland, Croatia, Mexico, Poland.
Pot 3: Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, Iran, Serbia, Senegal, Japan, Costa Rica.
Pot 4: Australia, South Korea, Nigeria, Morocco, Panama, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia.
And for comparison, here are the actual World Cup Draw pots. Some big differences stand out.
England and Spain are underrated, Belgium and Poland overrated
Poland got a top seed for the real World Cup draw, but ELO only ranks them as the 15th best qualifier.
Conversely, Spain is a Pot 2 team in real life, but ELO thinks they’re the third best team in the world. Belgium and England also swap pots if ELO is used to rank teams, which English fans will likely find outrageous.
Don’t sleep on Asia’s best
You probably haven’t heard much hype for Japan or Iran, but ELO likes them quite a bit more than FIFA. Whichever groups they get drawn into in December are unlikely to be considered the “Group of Death,” but perhaps they should be.
What are the best possible groups in the World Cup?
It’s fun to consider what the draw might look like with good rankings, but it’s probably even more fun to use ELO to look at the best possible real life draw scenarios.
The group with the highest possible ELO rating is: Brazil, Spain, Iran and Serbia. But some other scenarios are even juicier.
There’s also a great way to get two almost equally nasty groups of death. Brazil, Spain, Sweden and Japan could be in one group, while Germany, Colombia, Iran and Serbia could make up another. Argentina, England, Denmark and Australia would make up the next strongest possible group in that scenario, leaving us with three groups where every game is must-watch.
What’s the weakest possible group?
Unsurprisingly, all of the weakest possible groups feature Russia. The hosts’ ELO rank of 45 means they’re probably better than FIFA’s ranking of 65 suggests, but they’re only ahead of four other teams. They also all feature Saudi Arabia, the lowest-rated team in the World Cup.
Russia, Mexico, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia would make up the worst possible group, according to ELO. While El Tri supporters might not be a fan of that disrespect, they’ll certainly be pleased if that group pops up during the draw on December 1.
Former Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel has been named the new head coach of the England national team, the country’s Football Association said in a statement on Wednesday.
The German, who is England’s third foreign manager, after Sweden’s Sven-Goran Eriksson and Italian Fabio Capello, will be assisted by Englishman Anthony Barry, the statement added.
“We are thrilled to have hired Thomas Tuchel, one of the best coaches in the world and Anthony Barry who is one of the best English coaches to support him,” FA CEO Mark Bullingham said.
Tuchel replaces Lee Carsley, England’s under-21 manager, who has been in temporary charge since the resignation of Gareth Southgate after England’s defeat by Spain in the Euro 2024 final in July.
-Reuters
German Thomas Tuchel has been appointed head coach of the England national team on Wednesday.
Born: Aug. 29, 1973 in Krumbach, Germany.
PLAYING CAREER
* Tuchel played for his local club TSV Krumbach, before moving to FC Augsburg’s academy at the age of 15.
* He never played for Augsburg’s senior side and joined German second division team Stuttgarter Kickers in 1992.
* After eight league appearances for Kickers, Tuchel moved to fourth-tier SSV Ulm.
* Tuchel made 69 league appearances for Ulm as a central defender before he was forced to retire in 1998 at the age of 25 due to a knee injury.
COACHING CAREER
* Tuchel began his coaching career with a youth team role at VfB Stuttgart in 2000, working with future Germany internationals Mario Gomez and Holger Badstuber.
* He returned to Augsburg and took charge of their reserve team for the 2007-08 season.
* Tuchel was appointed Mainz 05 manager in 2009, replacing compatriot Juergen Klopp.
* He guided Mainz to Bundesliga stability during his five-year stint at the club, gaining plaudits for his team’s high energy, attacking style of play.
* Tuchel took over from Klopp as Borussia Dortmund coach in 2015.
* He led Dortmund to a 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in the 2017 German Cup final. He was sacked by Dortmund three days later.
* Tuchel joined Paris St Germain in 2018 on a two-year contract, replacing Unai Emery.
* He won two Ligue 1 titles, including a domestic quadruple in his second season, and guided the club to their first Champions League final, where they lost 1-0 to Bayern Munich.
* Tuchel was sacked by PSG on Christmas Eve in 2020, despite the club finishing top of their Champions League group and sitting third in the Ligue 1 table.
* He was named Chelsea manager in January 2021 on an initial 18-month contract following the dismissal of Frank Lampard.
* Tuchel revived the team’s Premier League season and guided the London club to the Champions League final, where they beat Manchester City. Chelsea also won the Super Cup and Club World Cup.
* Chelsea sacked Tuchel in September 2022 following a shock 1-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb in their opening Champions League group game.
* Bayern Munich appointed Tuchel to succeed Julian Nagelsmann in March last year.
* Bayern decided to let Tuchel go at the end of the 2023-24 season despite a contract until 2025. Tuchel steered Bayern to the Bundesliga title in 2022-23, but they finished the last campaign without any silverware for the first time in more than a decade.
* Tuchel will become England’s third foreign manager after Sweden’s Sven-Goran Eriksson and Italian Fabio Capello.
* Tuchel will take over the team in January ahead of the qualification campaign for the 2026 World Cup.
-Reuters
Wolverhampton Wanderers forward Mateus Mane has become hot property after Portugal named the 17-year-old in their Under-18 squad on Friday, one day after England included him in their squad.
Mane was called up for a second successive England youth camp by coach Liam Bramley before the team travel to Marbella for a four-team tournament this month.
Mane is eligible for both teams having played for the Portugal Under-17 side last season. As the Under-18 team is a non-UEFA age group, both nations are entitled to call the player up.
He made his England international debut last month against the Portugal Under-18 side who have named Mane in their squad for a four-nation tournament this month.
With both tournaments running concurrently, Mane can only play for one team and Wolves and England confirmed he would feature in Bramley’s side.
Reuters has contacted Portugal’s football association for clarification.
While players with multiple nationalities have played for more than one country if they are eligible, they are not allowed to switch allegiances at senior level – unless they have played only in friendly matches for the first country.
-Reuters
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